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Issue of October 19, 2026 · MondayNo. 139

The drone that flew across Lithuania exploded in Pasvalys district

5.3/10 elevated ↓ -0.1vs. previous issue
In this issue ▾
  1. Top stories of the day
  2. By area, in detail
  3. Contradictions and discrepancies
  4. Escalation risk assessment (0–10)
  5. Sources

Issue of 19 October 2026 — for the period 18–19 October 2026.

Note: The object that flew across almost all of Lithuania on the morning of 18 October turned out to be a drone: it exploded near the village of Juodžionys in Pasvalys district, debris damaged a passing car, and no one was hurt; by the evening Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas called it a Ukrainian drone from the attack on St Petersburg, according to preliminary data knocked off course by Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems, and the Ukrainian foreign ministry apologised. Lithuania says the drone came in from Poland; the Polish defence ministry says its radars do not confirm a crossing of the Polish–Lithuanian border; the search for an object near Lublin was negative. The same night an attempt to set fire to a warehouse with Starlink equipment was foiled in Vilnius — Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius links it to Russia. The night into 19 October passed without attacks on northwest Russia: Leningrad, Pskov and Kaliningrad oblasts are not in the Russian defence ministry's overnight list (149 UAVs), and no new closure of the east of the Gulf of Finland was found at the time of compilation. (Previous issue — 18 October 2026, risk 5.4/10.)

Top stories of the day

  1. 18.10 — The drone that flew across Lithuania exploded in Pasvalys district; Vilnius calls it Ukrainian, knocked off course by Russian EW, Kyiv has apologised. 15min (live feed 18.10, 07:12, updated 21:23): at 12:53 the police confirmed possible drone debris near the village of Juodžionys; the ARAS anti-terrorist unit was deployed, the "Skydas" plan was activated, and one car was damaged — according to the police, "nuolaužos krisdamos apgadino automobilio priekines dureles" ("the falling debris damaged the car's front doors"). Head of the National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC) Vilmantas Vitkauskas (13:03): "Sprogimas įvyko, tą galima patvirtinti" ("an explosion took place, that can be confirmed"). BNS (updated 09:51): Kaunas — "Objektas į Lietuvos oro erdvę preliminariai įskrido iš Lenkijos" ("according to preliminary data, the object flew into Lithuanian airspace from Poland"); the minister asked his Polish counterpart for a joint investigation. LRT via BNS (19:52): "šis konkretus dronas yra atakos prieš Sankt Peterburgą pasekmė" ("this particular drone is a consequence of the attack on St Petersburg"); according to preliminary data it is a Ukrainian "FPV-1" model drone (ELTA via Respublika, 20:39, writes "FP1"); the onboard electronics are still being searched for. Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi, according to Liga.net (17:24 Kyiv time) and AAP/Reuters: "We apologise for any disruption, risks, and concern this may have caused"; the ministry allows that the drone was diverted by Russian EW systems. According to AAP/Reuters, a NATO spokesperson said two Italian Eurofighters were scrambled under the alliance's command. President Gitanas Nausėda on X (tv3.lt via ELTA, 12:14): "Rusijos agresijos karas prieš Ukrainą plinta į NATO ir ES rytinį flangą" ("Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is spreading to the eastern flank of NATO and the EU"). Confirmed by several independent newsrooms (BNS, ELTA, LRT, Reuters/AAP, LSM); the drone type and the EW version are preliminary. Sources: 15min — live feed (18.10.2026); BNS (18.10.2026); LRT — Kaunas on St Petersburg (18.10.2026); Liga.net (18.10.2026); AAP / Reuters via Newcastle Herald (18.10.2026); tv3.lt — Nausėda (18.10.2026).

  2. 18.10 — Poland does not confirm that the drone came from its territory; the search for an object near Lublin found nothing. RMF24 (18.10, 11:42) and WP via PAP (13:41): Polish defence ministry spokesman Janusz Sejmej — "Nic nie wskazuje na to, żeby ze strony Polski na Litwę wleciał jakikolwiek dron" ("nothing indicates that any drone flew into Lithuania from Poland"), "na kierunku litewskim brak jest potwierdzenia (przez nasze systemy radarowe) przekroczenia granicy z Polski na Litwę" ("on the Lithuanian axis there is no confirmation (by our radar systems) of a border crossing from Poland into Lithuania"); "Jesteśmy w kontakcie ze stroną litewską" ("we are in contact with the Lithuanian side"). Separately: the search for a possible crash site of an object that may have violated Polish airspace near Lublin on the night of 17–18 October ended without findings — Lieutenant Colonel Jacek Goryszewski of the Operational Command (DORSZ) told PAP: "wynik poszukiwań jest negatywny" ("the result of the search is negative", Portal Samorządowy via PAP, 20:15); about 30 soldiers of the 2nd Lublin WOT brigade, the police and the military gendarmerie took part, with a helicopter. According to Radio Lublin (18:45), Goryszewski said that "potwierdziły się częściowo anomalie pogodowe… część jeszcze jest weryfikowana" ("weather anomalies have been partly confirmed… some is still being verified") and that no Russian air attack assets were observed in the area at the time. DORSZ (Defence24, 15:33): "Żaden z tych wariantów nie został dotychczas potwierdzony" ("none of these variants has been confirmed so far"); some publications may be "próbą manipulacji informacyjnej" ("an attempt at information manipulation"). Radio Lublin (19.10, 08:00): the search resumes at about 09:00. ⚠️ Contradiction: the Lithuanian side names Poland as the entry point, the Polish side sees no crossing (see the contradictions section). Sources: RMF24 (18.10.2026); WP / PAP (18.10.2026); Portal Samorządowy / PAP (18.10.2026); Radio Lublin (18.10.2026); Defence24 (18.10.2026); Radio Lublin — search resumes (19.10.2026).

  3. 18–19.10 — Lithuania: the warning system worked "not fully"; today the National Security Commission will discuss additional powers to neutralise drones. BNS (18.10): Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius — "Akivaizdu, kad perspėjimo sistema suveikė, bet ne iki galo" ("it is obvious that the warning system worked, but not fully"); Kaunas called the alerting of only the northern counties "keista ir nepriimtina" ("strange and unacceptable"). LRT (17:09): according to data cited by the newsroom, the drone crossed almost all of Lithuania, and Marijampolė county received no warning; Pasvalys district administration director Povilas Balčiūnas: "Tokio nurodymo nebuvo, kad reikia atidaryti priedangas" ("there was no instruction to open the shelters"). 15min (21:13): Sinkevičius — "Rytoj Nacionalinio saugumo komisijos posėdyje svarstysime papildomus įgaliojimus tarnyboms neutralizuoti dronus" ("tomorrow at the meeting of the National Security Commission we will consider additional powers for the services to neutralise drones"); the drone "tikėtina" deviated from its course "dėl Rusijos naudojamų elektroninės kovos priemonių" ("likely… because of electronic warfare means used by Russia"). LRT via BNS (19.10, 06:18): the commission meets today; Nausėda is meeting the heads of intelligence and the army commander. Conservative opposition leader Laurynas Kasčiūnas (tv3.lt via ELTA, 12:11): "Turime pripažinti, kad nekontroliuojame situacijos" ("we have to admit that we are not in control of the situation") — one source. There are no commission decisions at the time of compilation; a change to the rules of engagement has so far only been proposed. Sources: BNS (18.10.2026); LRT — Pasvalys resident (18.10.2026); 15min — prime minister (18.10.2026); LRT — commission meeting (19.10.2026); tv3.lt — Kasčiūnas (18.10.2026).

  4. 18.10 — An attempt to set fire to a warehouse with Starlink equipment was foiled in Vilnius; the prime minister links it to Russia. LRT English via LRT, BNS and ELTA (18.10, 12:49): at about 02:00 in Aukštieji Paneriai there was an attempt to set fire to the premises of a Lithuanian company where Starlink equipment is stored; containers of incendiary liquid of 3 to 10 litres were found. Sinkevičius: "It is likely that it is already clear who commissioned it – it is the Russian side". Postimees (14:25): "Teenistused olid ettevõtet võimalike rünnakute eest hoiatanud, turvameetmeid tugevdati ja katse ebaõnnestus" ("the services had warned the company about possible attacks, security measures were strengthened and the attempt failed"). Reuters (via ThePrint): Vitkauskas — "not a routine arson attack but an act of sabotage", the target being Ukraine; Moscow calls the accusations "anti-Russian hysteria". LRT via ELTA (19.10, 08:32): a pre-trial investigation has been opened. Kaunas (LRT, 19:52) does not link the arson to the drone. The attribution to Russia is the Lithuanian government's assessment; no evidence has been presented publicly. Sources: LRT English (18.10.2026); Postimees (18.10.2026); Reuters / ThePrint (18.10.2026); LRT — investigation (19.10.2026).

  5. 18–19.10 — After the largest attack on St Petersburg, the night in the northwest passed quietly; Peskov speaks of Kyiv's "agony". Interfax (18.10, 14:03): Leningrad oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko summed up — "145 UAVs were shot down over the past night and the morning of 18 October", the attack "did not disrupt the operation of social facilities"; at the "Vostochnaya" substation "mainly wires were affected", and at the VK data centre transformer equipment and a warehouse complex were damaged. Interfax (09:30, updated 10:39): in St Petersburg one person was killed and five injured; fires at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, the "Ruchyi" oil depot and warehouses in Kolpinsky district. Fontanka (13:30): restrictions at Pulkovo were fully lifted at ten in the morning; by 13:00, 29 departures had been cancelled, 41 delayed and 13 aircraft diverted to alternate airfields. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to Kommersant (16:18, citing TASS): "Some last manifestations of agony are being observed. The Kyiv regime is resisting. But this cannot change the course of events." The Russian defence ministry's daytime list for 18 October is 41 UAVs, including over Pskov oblast (Interfax, 20:25); the overnight list for 19 October is 149 UAVs over 13 regions, and Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov and Kaliningrad oblasts and St Petersburg are not on it (Interfax, 08:45; Fontanka, 08:58 — a "relatively calm" night). The shootdown count is data from the governor and the Russian defence ministry; there is no independent confirmation. Sources: Interfax — Drozdenko's summary (18.10.2026); Interfax — fatality and fires (18.10.2026); Fontanka — Pulkovo (18.10.2026); Kommersant — Peskov (18.10.2026); Interfax — daytime list (18.10.2026); Interfax — overnight list (19.10.2026); Fontanka — the night into 19 October (19.10.2026).

  6. 19.10 — Poland: a new RCB alert for Lublin and Podkarpackie voivodeships, military aviation in the air because of a Russian strike on western Ukraine. Polsat News with PAP (19.10, 06:54): DORSZ — "Naziemne systemy obrony powietrznej oraz rozpoznania radiolokacyjnego osiągnęły stan gotowości" ("ground-based air defence and radar reconnaissance systems have reached a state of readiness"); the RCB alert was sent to 24 powiats of Lublin and 25 powiats of Podkarpackie voivodeship. Super Express Rzeszów (07:02) — DORSZ: "Działania te mają charakter prewencyjny" ("these actions are preventive in nature"). Only Polsat News, citing the air navigation agency, reports a temporary suspension of Lublin and Rzeszów airports — one source. No all-clear was found at the time of compilation. The Polsat headline speaks of fighters being scrambled, the text of "lotnictwo wojskowe" ("military aviation"). Sources: Polsat News (19.10.2026); Super Express Rzeszów (19.10.2026).

  7. 19.10 — Lithuania: the draft 2027 budget allocates more than EUR 4.8 billion to defence, exactly 5% of GDP. LRT via BNS (19.10, 06:20): "Gynybai siūloma skirti daugiau nei 4,8 mlrd. eurų, arba lygiai 5 proc. BVP" ("it is proposed to allocate more than EUR 4.8 billion, or exactly 5% of GDP, to defence"); this is several tens of millions more than this year, but a smaller share of GDP; the deficit is 3.8% of GDP. Today Nausėda meets Seimas Speaker Juozas Olekas; on Tuesday the draft is submitted to the Seimas. LRT via BNS (18.10, 13:56): funding for the State Security Department (VSD) will rise from about EUR 64.6 million to almost EUR 70 million. Sources: LRT — 2027 budget (19.10.2026); LRT — intelligence services in the budget (18.10.2026).

By area, in detail

Construction of military facilities and fortifications

  • Vilnius, German brigade. LRT via ELTA (18.10, 16:05): six ideas have been submitted to the design competition for a school and kindergarten for the children of German brigade soldiers at Išganytojo kalva; about 100 kindergarten places and almost 900 pupils; the winner will be named in Q4 2026, and the brigade is to reach full combat readiness in 2027.
  • Finland, mines. Yle via STT (19.10, about 08:19): "Puolustusvoimat haluaa ostaa miljoona jalkaväkimiinaa kotimaisilta valmistajilta" ("the Defence Forces want to buy a million anti-personnel mines from domestic manufacturers"); production in Finland is planned to start in 2028, about EUR 100 million (one source; Finland has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention).
  • No new kilometrage of the Baltic defence line, ditches in Estonia or sections of "Tarcza Wschód" dated 18–19 October was found.

Deployment and movement of forces

  • Latvia, Canadian contingent. Postimees (19.10, 06:30): a fire at the Canadian base in Wainwright killed four soldiers of a battalion that was due to deploy to Latvia in the spring as part of the NATO multinational brigade; ERR, Russian edition — 39 people in hospital, 19 in critical condition. This is an accident outside the region; there is nothing new on rotation timelines.
  • Lithuania, the border with Kaliningrad: the extension of the army's assistance to the border guard to mid-November was covered in the issue of 17 October; there are no new reports.
  • Poland, November. ERR, Russian edition (18.10, about 15:49), again citing The Times and Daily Mail via RBC-Ukraine: at least 1,500 British, French and German military personnel in Poland in November; "and not about a confirmed decision to immediately send troops to Ukraine". There is still only one original source.
  • Poland, Warmian-Masurian voivodeship: the "Ognista Struga-26" exercise in Ełk gmina on 26–30 October — an announcement of 16 October (elkonline.pl), outside the window, given as context.
  • Exercises: Brave Blue 26 in Estonia runs through 27 October; there is no new data. Steadfast Noon continues in Italy. "Zapad-2026" is not taking place. "Ussisõnad-2026" is not independently confirmed.

Agreements and spending

  • Lithuania (item 7): 5% of GDP for defence in the draft 2027 budget.
  • Estonia. Today at 15:00 the Riigikogu considers a no-confidence motion against Kristen Michal's government, initiated by 34 MPs; 51 votes are needed to pass it (rus.postimees.ee via BNS, 19.10, 07:29). The motion has no defence component.
  • The U.S. and Ukraine. ERR via BNS (18.10): Volodymyr Zelensky said the U.S. has resumed sharing intelligence with Ukraine; "samas ei selgunud, millal täpselt" ("however, it did not become clear when exactly").

Military aid and air defence / electronic warfare

  • Lithuania (items 1, 3): the drone crossed the whole country, and no one dared to shoot it down — the rules require visual identification, and there was fog; additional powers are now being discussed.
  • Latvia. LETA via jauns.lv (18.10, 11:23): National Armed Forces public affairs adviser Roberts Skraučs — "Svētdien drons Latvijas teritorijā nav ielidojis un, iespējams, detonējis Lietuvas teritorijā, Pasvales rajonā" ("on Sunday the drone did not fly into Latvian territory and possibly detonated on Lithuanian territory, in Pasvalys district"). LSM English (updated 20:51): the warning was declared at 07:40 because of a "high probability that the object might fly into Latvian territory". ERR (Estonian edition) via LSM: "NBS on tugevdanud õhutõrjevõimekust idapiiril" ("the National Armed Forces have strengthened air defence capability on the eastern border").
  • Finland. After the closure of 18 October the restrictions were lifted at 09:43 (Yle, updated 10:09). No new closure of the east of the Gulf of Finland on the night into 19 October was found at the time of compilation.
  • Poland (item 6): RCB alert on the morning of 19 October.

Kaliningrad and Russia's border regions

  • St Petersburg and Leningrad oblast (item 5): the final count — 145 shot down according to the governor, one person killed in St Petersburg. Fontanka (chronicle, 16:24): in St Petersburg five people are in hospital, one in serious condition; in Leningrad oblast 10 were injured, seven hospitalised, including five children. Meduza (18.10) writes of one killed and 15 injured and calls the attack the "largest-scale" on St Petersburg and the oblast; Meduza's reports of damage to the cable-stayed bridge and a drug-treatment hospital are not in the official reports. Fontanka (22:10): the power supply in Yanino was "practically restored by the evening of 18 October".
  • Pskov oblast. Inform-Pskov (18.10, 10:17): on the night into 18 October 10 drones were destroyed over the oblast; Governor Mikhail Vedernikov: "Be attentive and careful, do not approach the debris." In the daytime on 18 October the oblast was again in the defence ministry list (item 5); no statements by the governor on the daytime attack were found.
  • Kaliningrad. No new statements, exercises, transit reports or reports on missile systems were found for 18–19 October. The Baltic Fleet submarine-hunting exercise was covered in the issue of 18 October.
  • Russia's reaction to the drone in Lithuania. No statements by the Kremlin, the Russian foreign ministry or the defence ministry on the Lithuanian incident were found.
  • Belarus. Nasha Niva (18.10, 22:07): Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich rated the inspection of the security bloc at 9.5 out of 10 and said: "we made the inspection harder by constant action of sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the [notional] enemy" (one official source). No new exercises near the Lithuanian and Polish borders, no statements by Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin and no reports of balloons were found for 18–19 October.
  • Space. Postimees (19.10, 07:20), citing Helsingin Sanomat: the Russian satellite Kosmos-2612 came within about 100 m of the Finnish radar satellite ICEYE-X36 on Sunday morning; experts suspect a deliberate manoeuvre (one source).

Statements by officials

  • R. Kaunas, 18.10: the object preliminarily flew in from Poland; the drone is a consequence of the attack on St Petersburg, preliminarily a Ukrainian "FPV-1"; alerting only the northern counties is "strange and unacceptable".
  • M. Sinkevičius, 18.10: the warning system worked "not fully"; the commission will discuss powers to neutralise drones; whoever commissioned the arson is probably Russia.
  • G. Nausėda, 18.10: Russia's war against Ukraine is spreading to the eastern flank of NATO and the EU.
  • H. Tykhyi (Ukrainian foreign ministry), 18.10: apologies for the incident; the drone was probably knocked off course by Russian EW.
  • J. Sejmej (MON), 18.10: Polish radars do not confirm a crossing of the border with Lithuania.
  • J. Goryszewski (DORSZ), 18.10: the result of the search near Lublin is negative; weather anomalies have been partly confirmed.
  • D. Peskov, 18.10: "last manifestations of agony"; Russia's response "is ongoing constantly".
  • A. Drozdenko, 18.10: 145 shot down, social facilities are operating.

⚠️ Contradictions and discrepancies

  • Where the drone came from. Lithuania's defence minister and the army (BNS, LRT) say radars tracked the target northward from Polish territory; the Polish defence ministry (RMF24, WP/PAP) writes that Polish radars do not confirm a crossing of the border with Lithuania and that there was no drone activity over northern Poland. The two sides have agreed to stay in contact; there is no joint conclusion. Assessment: the question is open; neither version can be considered established.
  • Type and fate of the drone. "FPV-1" at LRT/BNS and "FP1" at Respublika/ELTA — probably the same model spelled differently. Whether the drone exploded in the air (Nausėda: "sprogo virš" — "exploded above"), after hitting trees (tv3.lt), or whether this is yet to be established (the prime minister, according to LSM) — the versions differ. Time the fighters were scrambled: 06:15 (BNS, 15min) or "around 06:00" (Kaunas).
  • The sabotage version. On the morning of 18 October the prime minister demanded to "labai rimtai patikrinti ir sabotažo versiją" ("check very seriously the sabotage version as well", ELTA via sekunde.lt); by the evening the government and the defence minister leaned toward the version of a Ukrainian drone diverted by EW. This is a change of assessment as data emerged, not a refutation.
  • Did the drone enter Latvia. Kaunas on the morning of 18 October — "cannot be ruled out, but not confirmed"; the Latvian National Armed Forces (LETA) — it did not enter Latvia. The Latvian wording is later and more precise.
  • Lublin: number of calls from residents. The police — two, Radio Lublin — about five. At 12:56 Radio Lublin quotes Goryszewski about "ruchy bezzałogowych statków powietrznych" ("movements of unmanned aerial vehicles") near the junction of the borders of Poland, Ukraine and Belarus — this is only Radio Lublin; there is no second source.
  • Updates to the issue of 18 October (not errors — the data appeared after compilation). The Leningrad oblast governor's count rose from 144 to a final 145. St Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov said "no casualties" in the morning; later Interfax (09:30) reported one killed and five injured. Pulkovo: the issue had operation "by coordination" from 08:56; according to Fontanka, restrictions were fully lifted at about 10:00 (09:59 in the chronicle). Finland lifted the restrictions on 18 October at 09:43 according to Yle, "around ten" according to SSS.fi. The origin of the object over Lithuania, not named in the issue of 18 October, has now been preliminarily named by the Lithuanian government.
  • Casualties in St Petersburg and the oblast. Interfax: 1 killed and 5 injured in St Petersburg; Fontanka: 10 injured in Leningrad oblast; Meduza: 15 injured in total. The figures refer to different territories and moments; there is no final summary.
  • No new errors in previous issues requiring an entry in the corrections log were identified.

📊 Escalation risk assessment (0–10): 5.3 / 10

Overall score: 5.3 / 10. Down 0.1 from the 18 October issue. The nearest historical analogue is the tense late Cold War confrontation (≈3–4) with a noticeable addition: the war near northwest Russia is already leading to drones falling on NATO territory, and hybrid attacks on infrastructure continue. Below Able Archer 1983 (≈7) and the eve of 2008/2014 (≈6–7): the drone over Lithuania turned out to be Ukrainian and off course, not Russian, no one used weapons, and no movement of troops toward the Baltic borders has been named.

Drivers on the Russian side and its ally's:

  • The sabotage against Starlink in Vilnius, which the Lithuanian government attributes to Russia — a continuation of the hybrid campaign against infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
  • EW: according to Vilnius and Kyiv, it was Russian EW systems that diverted the Ukrainian drone into Lithuania — jamming in northwest Russia creates a risk for neighbours.
  • Strikes on western Ukraine again put Polish military aviation in the air on the morning of 19 October; Peskov promises that Russia's response "is ongoing constantly".
  • Belarus is inspecting its security bloc, practising action against sabotage groups.

Drivers on the NATO side and among individual members:

  • Lithuania is discussing additional powers to neutralise drones — tougher rules lower the threshold for using weapons in peacetime.
  • Budgets: Lithuania keeps defence at 5% of GDP, Finland is buying a million anti-personnel mines.
  • Preparation for a post-war mission in Ukraine: an exercise of at least 1,500 British, French and German military personnel in Poland in November. All these steps are defensive or training, with no forward move to the border.

Mutual / structural factors:

  • Ukraine's strikes on northwest Russia are the main source of stray overflights: the largest attack on St Petersburg produced the first drone crash of this window in a NATO country with damage to civilian property.
  • The divergence between Lithuania and Poland in assessing the drone's route — a gap in the common air picture on the eastern flank.
  • The approach of Kosmos-2612 to a Finnish satellite that is used for intelligence in Ukraine's interests (one source).

Stabilisers (both sides):

  • The drone's affiliation has been established and acknowledged: Ukraine has apologised, Lithuania does not accuse Russia of launching it; the incident did not become a pretext for mutual NATO–Russia accusations.
  • The night into 19 October in northwest Russia passed without attacks: Leningrad, Pskov and Kaliningrad oblasts and St Petersburg are not in the overnight list; Finland did not close the gulf.
  • The search near Lublin is negative; there were no Russian air attack assets in the area, according to DORSZ.
  • Kaliningrad does not appear in any of the Russian defence ministry's lists for the window; there are no new Russian exercises near the Baltic borders.

Why this score: the main factor behind the rise in the previous issue — an unidentified object in NATO airspace — has been explained: it was a Ukrainian drone that went off course, and Kyiv has apologised. The uncertainty that raised the score has been removed, and northwest Russia was not attacked on the last night. Pulling upward are the drone crash with damage to a civilian car, the sabotage against Starlink attributed to Russia, the divergence between Lithuania and Poland over the route, and the discussion of tougher rules. Hence the decrease is limited to −0.1.

Delta from the previous issue: ↓ (−0.1) — 5.4 (18 October) → 5.3 (19 October). Reason: the object over Lithuania has been identified as a Ukrainian drone knocked off course, with no sign of a Russian launch; a quiet night in the northwest.

Caveat: this is an analytical assessment from open sources, not a forecast.

Sources