Topics
Evergreen background pages on the monitor's key topics
Will Russia attack the Baltics? What the daily indicators actually showShort answer: the open-source record shows no Russian preparation to attack Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. The Baltic Monitor's daily escalation index stood at 5.1 out of 10 on 5 October 2026 — up…
The Suwałki Gap: NATO's narrowest and most exposed corridorThe Suwałki Gap is the stretch of Polish–Lithuanian border country wedged between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave to the west and Belarus to the east — about 65 km across in a straight line, with some…
Air alerts and airspace closures in the Baltics and PolandWhether there is an air alert today is decided, and announced first, by each country's own authorities. Poland's Government Centre for Security (RCB) sends Alert RCB messages straight to phones in…
The Baltic Defence Line: what Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are buildingThe Baltic Defence Line is a joint initiative by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to build a belt of fortifications along their borders with Russia and Belarus. It was announced in January 2024, with…
Kaliningrad as a "bastion": Russia's A2/AD zone in the BalticThe Kaliningrad region is a Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, Russia's main military base on the Baltic (Baltic Fleet HQ in Baltiysk) and the core of its A2/AD (anti-access/area denial)…
Russia's Baltic Fleet: bases, forces and what it did in 2026The Baltic Fleet is the Russian Navy's fleet on the Baltic Sea. Its headquarters are in Kaliningrad, its main naval base is Baltiysk at the mouth of the Vistula Lagoon, and its second base is…
Narva: Estonia's border city and the base being built 150 metres from RussiaNarva is Estonia's easternmost city, separated from the Russian town of Ivangorod by the Narva river and a single road bridge. It is the place foreign commentary reaches for whenever it wants a name…
NATO forces in the Baltics: who commands what after the 2026 reorganisationOn 1 July 2026 the command arrangements for the defence of Estonia and Latvia changed. Tactical command of both countries' land forces passed from Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin to the…
Military exercises in the Baltic region: the 2026 referenceExercises are the loudest recurring signal in Baltic security, and the easiest to misread. A rehearsal announced months ahead reads very differently from the same troop movement discovered on a…
Military exercises in the Baltic region in 2027: what is announcedAs of 5 October 2026, only two exercises affecting the Baltic region have been publicly named for 2027: NATO's Steadfast Defender 27 and the Russian-Belarusian Union Shield 2027 (Shchit Soyuza).…
Exercises
Reference on the region’s military exercises: dates, participants, content
| Exercise | When in 2026 | Where | Run by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallant Boar 2026 (also "Brave Boar", Drąsusis šernas) | 16–26 June 2026 | Poland (Orzysz area) and Lithuania, at the Suwałki corridor | Lithuania, Poland and France — no lead nation named | finished |
| BALTOPS 2026 | 4–19 June 2026 (active afloat phase) | Baltic Sea, from the Skagerrak/Kattegat to the Gulf of Riga | NATO / United States — command reported two different ways | finished |
| Namejs 2026 | 2 September – 8 October 2026 | Latvia, nationwide | Latvian National Armed Forces / NATO MND North | finished |
| Strong Griffin 2026 | 2–20 September 2026 (concluded) | Lithuania, Švenčionys district | Lithuania / "Griffin" Infantry Brigade | finished |
| Perkūno griausmas 2026 | 17 September – 15 October 2026 | Lithuania, nationwide (border, Klaipėda, commandant's offices) | Lithuanian Armed Forces / Defence Staff | finished |
| Vyčio skliautas 2026 | 25 September – 3 October 2026 | Lithuania, nationwide (evacuation routes, Lazdijai district) | Lithuania / Government Chancellery and NKVC | finished |
| Indestructible Brotherhood-2026 and Barrier-2026 | 12–16 October 2026 | Belarus, Vitebsk (Losvido) and Starodorozhsky; not the Suwałki Gap | CSTO / Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan | finished |
| Baltic Trust 26 (BATT26) | 3–14 August 2026 (main phase; reports of the end date differ) | Sēlija range, southern Latvia | Latvia's National Armed Forces / NATO NCIA | finished |
| Freedom Shield 2026 (26-I) | Dates not recorded; reported under way 10–23 June 2026 | Pabradė, Lithuania | German Bundeswehr — 45th Panzer Brigade "Litauen" | — |
| Vigorous Warrior 2026 | 8–20 June 2026 (active phase 12–17 June) | Estonia, Harju and Lääne-Viru counties | Estonian Defence Forces / NATO Centre of Excellence for Military Medicine | finished |
| Ramstein Flag 2026 (RAFL 26) | Northern phase 8–19 June 2026 | Airspace of Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark | NATO Allied Air Command (AIRCOM) | finished |
| Baltic Zenith 2026 | early June 2026 (reports differ) | Latvia, Jūrmalciems range | Latvia | finished |
| Zapad 2026 | Never scheduled | — | — | — |