Methodology

Baltic Monitor is an automated daily monitor of open sources on military preparation in the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), the Suwałki corridor, the Kaliningrad region and Russia's border regions. The digest is compiled daily: news is selected for the last 24 hours, deduplicated, translated into five languages and checked for contradictions.

Sources

We deliberately read media of different countries and types — state, independent, official (defence ministries, NATO) and propagandistic on both sides. The source type is always labelled. Claims originating only from propaganda outlets and unsupported by official information are flagged as low-credibility.

Escalation index

An integral expert assessment of military-political tension in the region on a 0–10 scale, calculated in every issue. Escalation is treated as a two-way process: drivers on the Russian side, on the NATO side, and mutual/structural factors (incidents, exercise density, "windows of weakness") are assessed separately, followed by stabilizers — factors that reduce risk.

The score is calibrated against historical benchmarks: Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 ≈ 9–10; Able Archer 1983 ≈ 7; run-up to 2008 (Georgia) and 2014 (Crimea) ≈ 6–7; routine Cold War ≈ 3–4; calm periods ≈ 1–2.

Comparability of scores. When geographic coverage or methodology changes, the scale shifts: a score given before the change and one given after it measure different things. Such moments are marked on the chart with a dashed vertical line and a caption. Values cannot be compared directly across that boundary.

Limitations

This is an analytical assessment based on incomplete open data — not a forecast and not intelligence. Figures from the conflict parties often cannot be independently verified.