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Issue of November 9, 2026 · MondayNo. 160

Latvia: about 4 km of the 89 km of anti-tank ditches on the eastern border have been dug, with a first 27 km section due by spring

5.3/10 elevated ↓ -0.1vs. previous issue
In this issue ▾
  1. Top stories of the day
  2. By area, in detail
  3. Contradictions and discrepancies
  4. Escalation risk assessment (0–10)
  5. Sources

Issue of 9 November 2026 — covering 8–9 November 2026

Note: on 8–9 November no drone incursions into the Baltic states or Poland, no border violations and no reports of Russian or Belarusian troop movements were recorded; the main military news of the window was an overnight attack by more than a hundred Ukrainian drones on Leningrad oblast, with a fire at the Kirishi refinery, and an FT report that ten JEF countries, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, will sign a naval agreement on 10 November to deter Russian submarines. Latvia said about 4 km of the 89 km of anti-tank ditches planned on its eastern border have been dug and it hopes to finish a first 27 km section by spring; in Poland the "coalition of the willing" exercise Koalicja 26.2 starts on schedule, and France announced that Europeans will be represented at the Abu Dhabi talks on 10–11 November. (Previous issue — 8 November 2026, risk 5.4/10.)

Top stories of the day

  1. 08–09.11 — Latvia: about 4 km of the 89 km of anti-tank ditches on the eastern border have been dug, with a first 27 km section due by spring. A report by LTV correspondent Miks Kuncevičs (LSM, Latvian version 08.11, Russian 09.11; LSM English item 09.11): the first two stages plan 89 km of ditches, of which about 4 km are done; dragon's teeth have been installed along about 5 km, with 1.5-tonne concrete blocks just over a metre tall set in three rows. At the site visited near Balvi the ditch is more than 2 m deep and more than 5 m wide. Work will continue through the winter. €303 million has been allocated until 2029 to fortify the more than 450 km border with Russia and Belarus; there will be no continuous line, as swamps, lakes and forests act as natural obstacles. Senior Sergeant Edgars Briedis of the engineer company of the National Guard's 2nd Vidzeme Brigade explained that a ditch has to be filled in or crossed with special bridges, and the teeth have to be removed with separate equipment. Sources: LSM (Russian, Latvian), LSM English.

  2. 08.11 — JEF: ten northern European countries, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, to sign a naval agreement on 10 November to deter Russian submarines. The Financial Times (08.11), citing an interview with the UK Chief of the Defence Staff Richard Knighton, as relayed by Kommersant (08.11, 15:58) and Postimees via DW (08.11): the navies of the Joint Expeditionary Force (UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden) will sign a partnership agreement aboard the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales ahead of the Atlantic Future Forum. Knighton said the JEF should move from memoranda and information sharing to practical action, and that one of the most important tasks is to stop Russian submarines from threatening shipping in wartime. He described the threats from Russia as "targeted killings, sabotage, cyberattacks". All accounts rest on a single original source (FT); there was no official government announcement at the time of compilation. Sources: Kommersant, Postimees (via DW/FT).

  3. 09.11 — Leningrad oblast: overnight attack by Ukrainian drones, fire at the Kirishi refinery. Governor Alexander Drozdenko (as relayed by Kommersant, 09.11, 06:17) reported 113 drones shot down overnight; the air alert lasted about three hours from 02:15 Moscow time. Hits in the Kirishi industrial zone were confirmed and debris struck a flat (no one was hurt, the family was evacuated); in Vsevolozhsk debris fell on the roof of an apartment block and a temporary shelter was set up for residents. ERR (09.11), citing Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels, reports a fire at the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery (about 18 million tonnes a year, roughly 7% of Russian refining); according to media reports the plant has already stopped three times this year after strikes. Kirishi is about 150 km from the Estonian border; there are no reports of drones falling on Baltic territory. ⚠️ Contradiction: the number of drones downed (see section below). Sources: Kommersant, ERR.

  4. 09.11 — Poland: the "coalition of the willing" exercise Koalicja 26.2 starts on the defence ministry's schedule. The exercise runs 9–22 November, with the main site at the Nowa Dęba training ground in Subcarpathia and a distinguished visitors day on 20 November (Polish defence ministry media notice). Spider's Web lists 11 countries: Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the UK; parts of the exercise take place in France and Turkey. No fresh reports of the exercise actually starting had been found at the time of compilation. On 7 November Moscow called possible coalition contingents in Ukraine "legitimate targets" (see the 8 November issue); no new Russian Foreign Ministry statements on the exercise were found in the window. ⚠️ Contradiction: troop numbers (see section below). Sources: Polish Ministry of National Defence (gov.pl), Spider's Web.

  5. 08–09.11 — Ukraine talks: France announces Europeans will take part in the Abu Dhabi meeting, Rubio speaks of progress on Europe's "security architecture". French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot on RTL (08.11, via DW as relayed by ERR): "This time they will take part. France will be there so that Europe's voice is heard"; the 10–11 November meeting is the first in this format since February 2026. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (09.11, ERR via BNS/AFP): the key question is what the post-war security architecture of Ukraine and the whole continent will look like, and "nothing has been finally settled yet". Kommersant (08.11), citing a Washington Post column (06.11): Jared Kushner is considering the NATO-Russia Council format as a basis for multilateral talks between Russia and Europe; European officials told the WP they will discuss the architecture only after a ceasefire. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (ETV, 09.11): "Everything that concerns us must also be agreed with us." Sources: ERR (Russian, Estonian), Kommersant.

  6. 09.11 — Lithuania: NATO tabletop exercise on the energy resilience of the north-eastern flank begins. LRT (09.11): the exercise "Darnus atsparumas 2026" (CORE 26-NE) runs all week with more than 100 representatives of allies and partners; it is organised by the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, NATO's cyber and digital transformation division and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. The focus is on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland: interdependence of power and gas networks, supply-chain vulnerabilities and protection of critical energy infrastructure. Source: LRT.

  7. 08.11 — Kaliningrad: a US reconnaissance aircraft flew around the oblast and headed towards the Estonian border. Novy Kaliningrad (08.11), citing RIA Novosti (EU-sanctioned outlet — no direct link) and flight data: a Bombardier Artemis II from Mihail Kogălniceanu air base (Romania) flew around Kaliningrad oblast at about 12:02 Moscow time and by 14:29 was tens of kilometres from the Estonian-Russian border. No airspace violation is reported; the same aircraft flew near the oblast's borders on 1 November and in mid-October. According to a single source, with no independent confirmation; reconnaissance flights over international waters and allied territory are routine. Sources: Novy Kaliningrad; RIA Novosti — text only.

By area, in detail

Construction of military facilities and fortifications

  • Latvia (item 1): 4 km of ditches out of 89 km, 5 km of dragon's teeth, a first 27 km section by spring 2027, €303 million until 2029. The fence on the Belarusian border (about 145 km) was completed in July 2024, on the Russian border (280 km) at the end of 2025.
  • Estonia, Lithuania, Poland. No new reports dated within the window on Baltic Defence Line bunkers or the East Shield ("Tarcza Wschód") were found for 8–9 November.

Troop deployments and movements

  • Exercises. Koalicja 26.2 in Poland, 9–22 November (item 4). Freedom Shield 26-II and Grand Eagle 26 in Lithuania (more than 6,000 troops) continue until 3 December. Resolute Reforger 2026 in Latvia was scheduled to end on 8 November; no closing reports were found in the window. Zapad-2026 is not being held; Ussisõnad-2026 has not been independently confirmed.
  • Poland. Defence24 (08.11, 19:30), citing the OSINT account Polish Military Radar: a Ukrainian Air Force An-26 transport flew from Ukraine to Rzeszów-Jasionka airport on the morning of 8 November; the article gives no purpose for the visit and there is no sign of an incident. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz meets Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon about US bases on 10 November (see the 8 November issue).

Agreements and spending

  • JEF (item 2): naval agreement of ten countries on 10 November.
  • Latvia. LSM (09.11): Defence Minister Raivis Melnis is ready to stay in office even in a government without New Unity; coalition talks continue.
  • Poland. Rzeczpospolita (in the Defence24 media review, 09.11): Maciej Miłosz argues that a return of conscription is "a matter of time"; according to the National Security Bureau, the average age of the reserve is about 47. This is an opinion column, not a government decision.

Military aid and air defence / EW

  • Latvia. ERR (08.11), citing LETA: the Latvian Air Force received the last of four UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters ordered in 2018 for about €175 million; they replace Soviet-made Mi-17s (original report 7 November).
  • Lithuania (item 6): NATO exercise on protecting energy infrastructure.

Kaliningrad and Russia's border regions

  • Leningrad oblast (item 3): drone attack on Kirishi and Vsevolozhsk.
  • Kaliningrad oblast (item 7): US reconnaissance flight according to RIA Novosti. No reports of Baltic Fleet ships putting to sea or of exercises in the oblast were found in the window.
  • Pskov oblast, St Petersburg, Belarus. No reports of troop movements, exercises or incidents near the borders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland were found for 8–9 November. On the Lithuanian-Belarusian border 7 and 6 irregular migrants were turned back on 8 and 9 November (LRT), in line with recent weeks.
  • Russia's position. Kommersant (08.11): according to the paper, Dmitry Peskov believes Europe is not ready to discuss a security system. No new official Moscow statements on the Baltic states and Poland were found in the window.

Official statements

  • J.-N. Barrot, French Foreign Minister, 08.11 (ERR via DW): "France will be there so that Europe's voice is heard."
  • M. Rubio, US Secretary of State, 09.11 (ERR): "Nothing has been finally settled yet, and perhaps some progress can be made in Abu Dhabi."
  • M. Tsahkna, Estonian Foreign Minister, 09.11 (ERR): "It must not happen again that a few great powers agree among themselves on decisions that concern us"; the best that can be hoped for is a ceasefire agreement.
  • R. Knighton, UK Chief of the Defence Staff, 08.11 (FT as relayed by Postimees): "The stronger we are, the better our chances of keeping Russia from testing us."
  • P. Orpo, Finnish Prime Minister, 08.11 (Yle): the threat from Russia is growing; Finland will not carry out hybrid attacks, but Europe can step up pressure through sanctions, visa restrictions and measures against the shadow fleet.
  • D. Trump, US President, 08–09.11 (LSM, Postimees): after peace Ukraine will most likely remain an independent state, "but with a different shape".
  • M. Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, Polish Deputy Defence Minister, 08.11 (Polsat News in the Defence24 review): after the Kraków attack the rules on gun permits should be reviewed. The attacker died in hospital on 9 November (Interfax via Polsat; ERR); still no link to any foreign state has been named.

⚠️ Contradictions and discrepancies

  • Number of drones over Leningrad oblast. Kommersant reported 38 downed at 04:17 Moscow time and 113 for the whole night at 06:17, citing the governor; ERR's morning roundup gives 81. These are most likely interim and final figures; the governor's latest figure is 113. All figures come from the Russian side and have not been independently verified.
  • Size of Koalicja 26.2. Spider's Web (06.11) writes of "about 2,800 troops in total, about 2,000 of them Polish, including support"; the UK defence ministry speaks of 2,800 foreign troops, and UA.News, citing the Polish defence ministry, of about 5,000 including Polish personnel (as in the 8 November issue). There is no official overall figure from the organisers; Spider's Web's reading differs from the British one.
  • Latvian ditches: figures unchanged in three weeks. The figures as of 9 November (about 4 km of ditches and 5 km of dragon's teeth out of a first 27 km section) match those given by the state company VNI on 21 October. Either work has advanced only marginally since then or the report relies on the earlier figures; there is no factual contradiction.
  • No new substantive errors in previous issues requiring an entry in the corrections log were identified.

📊 Escalation risk assessment (0–10): 5.3 / 10

Final score: 5.3 / 10. Closest historical analogue — the tense stand-off of the late Cold War (≈3–4), with a premium for hybrid pressure and the density of military measures around the Suwałki Gap. Below Able Archer 1983 (≈7) and the run-up to 2008/2014 (≈6–7): no use of weapons against NATO territory and no border violations.

Drivers on the side of Russia and its ally:

  • Hybrid background persists: the British Chief of the Defence Staff speaks of targeted killings, sabotage and cyberattacks; the Russian Foreign Ministry's 7 November threat against coalition contingents has not been withdrawn.
  • War next to the region: massive strikes on Ukraine continue.

Drivers on the side of NATO and individual members:

  • Exercises: Koalicja 26.2 in Poland with Estonia and Lithuania taking part, which Moscow describes as preparation for an intervention; more than 6,000 NATO troops in Lithuania until 3 December.
  • Naval deterrence: the JEF agreement against Russian submarines (according to the FT); US reconnaissance flights near Kaliningrad.
  • Border fortification: Latvian ditches and dragon's teeth, a defensive but visible measure.

Mutual / structural factors:

  • Drone strikes on north-western Russia: an attack by more than a hundred drones on Leningrad oblast, 150 km from Estonia, raises the risk of accidental incursions into Baltic airspace; such cases already occurred in Latvia in November.
  • Dispute over the security architecture: the US idea of the NATO-Russia Council and Europe's demand to discuss it only after a ceasefire.

Stabilisers (both sides):

  • No incidents: no drone incursions into the Baltic states and Poland, no border violations and no Russian or Belarusian troop movements were recorded on 8–9 November.
  • The negotiating track is widening: according to France, Europe will be represented in Abu Dhabi, and the US speaks of progress; no new threats from Moscow in the window.
  • Defensive nature of the measures: energy resilience exercises, border fortifications, naval patrols.

Rationale: the window is calmer than the previous one: no new threatening statements from Moscow, no border incidents, and the talks on the eve of the Abu Dhabi meeting have gained European participation. A larger drop is held back by the start of the Koalicja exercise, which Russia has already threatened, and by the drone attack on Leningrad oblast close to the Estonian border.

Delta to previous issue: ↓ (−0.1) — 5.4 (8 November) → 5.3 (9 November). Reason: no new threats or incidents, and a wider negotiating format; the score returns to the 7 November level.

Disclaimer: this is an analytical assessment based on open sources, not a forecast.

Sources