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Issue of November 3, 2026 · TuesdayNo. 154

Latvia: second air alert in two days; NATO fighters scrambled, object comes down in Balvi municipality near Tilža

5.3/10 elevated ↑ +0.1vs. previous issue
In this issue ▾
  1. Top stories of the day
  2. By area, in detail
  3. Contradictions and discrepancies
  4. Escalation risk assessment (0–10)
  5. Sources

Issue of 3 November 2026 — covering 2–3 November 2026

Note: overnight into 3 November Latvia had its second air alert and airspace incursion in two days: for about 25 minutes a threat was declared over Balvi and Ludza municipalities, fighters of NATO's air policing mission were scrambled, and according to preliminary army information the object came down in Balvi municipality near Tilža; no casualties or damage have been reported so far, and the type and origin of the object have not been given. In the same municipalities the National Armed Forces are exercising from 2 to 10 November, including checks of Baltic Defence Line elements. The UK and France announced "Koalicja", the first exercise of the Multinational Force Ukraine in Poland (9–22 November, 2,800 troops, including from Estonia and Lithuania), Estonia expelled a Russian citizen over links to Russian intelligence services, and the US announced Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. (Previous issue — 2 November 2026, risk 5.2/10.)

Top stories of the day

  1. 03.11 — Latvia: second air alert in two days; NATO fighters scrambled, object comes down in Balvi municipality near Tilža. LSM (03.11, 0:23, updated 0:52): the National Armed Forces (NBS) declared an airspace threat over Balvi and Ludza municipalities at 0:07 and lifted it at 0:33; residents received orange-level cell broadcast messages, and fighters of NATO's air policing mission were activated in Baltic airspace. According to preliminary NBS information, the object fell in Balvi municipality; a ground search is under way to pin down the location and circumstances. TVNET/LETA and Delfi (03.11) independently confirm the alert and the scramble; the chairman of Balvi municipal council, Jānis Trupovnieks, told LETA the object came down near Tilža, stressing that he had no further details. The type and origin of the object, and any casualties or damage, had not been reported at the time of writing. The NBS says air defence on the eastern border has been reinforced with additional units. This is the second episode in two days: on the evening of 1 November an object left Latvia for Russia and a Blaze interceptor was blown up at the border (see the 2 November issue). ⚠️ Contradiction: LSM and LETA give alert times a few minutes apart (see section below). Sources: LSM, LSM (English), LSM (Russian), TVNET/LETA, Delfi (Russian).

  2. 02–10.11 — Latvia: NBS exercise on the eastern border in Alūksne, Balvi and Ludza municipalities, including checks of Baltic Defence Line elements; a new mobile surveillance device is being tested at the border. Latvian Ministry of Defence (announced 30.10, exercise running in the window): from 2 to 10 November the NBS, together with the State Border Guard and State Police, are practising deployment and movement of units in the border area, including around Kārsava, and inspecting the state border and Baltic Defence Line elements by day and night; residents will see troops and military vehicles on the move. The ministry describes the exercise as scheduled. LSM (02.11): the first new "mobile surveillance device" has been installed on the border in Krāslava municipality to monitor the situation visually and acoustically; it is being tested, and no technical details were released. LSM citing LETA (02.11): five municipalities bordering Russia (Alūksne, Augšdaugava, Balvi, Ludza, Krāslava) agreed to set up a joint organisation and want a targeted government support programme; Alūksne mayor Dzintars Adlers says residents feel the state "has forgotten them". No source links the exercise to the overnight episode in Balvi municipality. Sources: Latvian Ministry of Defence, LSM (English), LSM (Russian).

  3. 03.11 — Poland: the UK and France announce "Koalicja", the first exercise of the Multinational Force Ukraine (MNF-U): 9–22 November, about 2,800 troops, Nowa Dęba training area. UK Ministry of Defence (03.11, 00:01 UTC): the exercise, jointly led by the UK and France, will take place on land, in the air and at sea; the UK contributes 300 personnel from 7 Brigade, Typhoon fighters and a Voyager tanker; the aim is to test how to move, protect and supply a force that would help rebuild Ukraine's armed forces once the fighting ends. LRT citing ELTA (03.11), quoting a joint London–Paris statement: France sends the largest contingent, 1,100 troops; troops from Belgium, Estonia, Germany, France, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the UK take part in land and air activity around Nowa Dęba (about 100 km from the Ukrainian border), while Turkey runs a maritime mine-clearance simulation for the Black Sea from Istanbul; MNF-U is not a NATO operation, the US is barely involved, and deployment is envisaged only after a ceasefire. Defence24 (02.11) citing Le Monde: Poland will provide logistics but Polish troops will not enter Ukraine; Ukrainian troops will also take part and NATO has been informed. UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting: "This isn't a hypothetical plan, it's a real force." ⚠️ Contradiction: number of participating countries (10 or 11, see section below). No Moscow reaction to the announcement was found in the window; on 17 October, according to RIA Novosti (ria.ru — EU-sanctioned outlet — no direct link), Peskov called the "coalition of the willing" warmongers over plans for this exercise (see the 18 October issue). Sources: GOV.UK (UK Ministry of Defence), LRT (via ELTA), Defence24.

  4. 02.11 — Estonia: KAPO expels Russian citizen Leonid Karabeshkin over links to Russian intelligence services; he is banned from the Schengen area. ERR (Russian, 02.11, 09:58) citing the Internal Security Service: the expulsion aims to prevent activity threatening the security of Estonia and Europe. KAPO spokesperson Marta Tuul told ERR that Karabeshkin travelled to Russia regularly and met intelligence officers and people acting in their interest, some of whom are under EU and Ukrainian sanctions, and that he is linked to the influence networks CIRP, RuBaltic and Regnum. ERR News (02.11) carries the same report in English; Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, per ERR: "we will not tolerate activity that undermines our security". This is information from the Estonian security service; no comment from Karabeshkin or the Russian side was found in the window. Sources: ERR (Russian), ERR News.

  5. 02.11 — Kaliningrad: according to Defence24, the Su-30SM that crashed on 21 October collided in mid-air with a second Su-30SM2 from the same regiment. Defence24 (02.11, 15:00): photos have appeared online of a second aircraft (bort number 89, registration RF-33838) of the 4th Mixed Aviation Regiment from Chernyakhovsk with roughly a quarter of one wing torn off; the outlet concludes the crash was caused by a collision and that the regiment is temporarily two aircraft short. On 21 October the Russian Defence Ministry reported a Su-30 crash during a scheduled flight without giving a cause (see the 22 October issue). According to a single source relying on open-source photos; no official or independent confirmation. Source: Defence24.

  6. 02–03.11 — Poland: the Territorial Defence Force is forming a unit to defend the border with Kaliningrad oblast, according to Novy Kaliningrad. Novy Kaliningrad (03.11), citing RIA Novosti (ria.ru — EU-sanctioned outlet — no direct link) and RMF24 radio: Colonel Cezary Kiśkowiak said the reorganisation of the border defence unit will be completed by the end of 2026 at the latest; "this is not about protection but about defending the border". The original RMF24 report could not be found; the unit's number and composition are not given. According to a single source (second-hand); no independent confirmation. Source: Novy Kaliningrad (citing RIA Novosti and RMF24).

  7. 02.11 — Hybrid threats: hackers raised refrigerator temperatures in shops in Estonia, Belgium, Luxembourg and Sweden; attempts were also made in Latvia. ERR News (02.11): freezer temperatures in Selver stores were raised to +50°C. Interfax (02.11, citing The Guardian and ERR): Ahold Delhaize stores in Belgium and Luxembourg and ICA and Coop in Sweden were hit; in October similar attacks affected more than 700 supermarkets in France. LSM (Russian, 02.11): attempts were also recorded in Latvia. No perpetrator has been officially identified; sources in the window give no grounds for attributing the attacks to a state. Sources: ERR News, Interfax, LSM (Russian).

  8. 02–03.11 — Diplomacy: Witkoff announces US-mediated Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. TVNET/LETA (03.11, 07:24): US special envoy Steve Witkoff said the talks will focus on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian aid and "next steps towards peace"; at the end of the week US negotiators will meet representatives of France, Germany, the UK, the EU and NATO in Brussels. Fontanka (03.11, 02:24) also reports the announcement. The same night, according to Fontanka, 493 drones were launched towards Moscow, and St Petersburg's Pulkovo airport adjusted its schedule because of restrictions at Moscow airports; the Russian Defence Ministry's overnight summary for 3 November was not available at the time of writing. Sources: TVNET/LETA, Fontanka.

By area, in detail

Construction of military facilities and fortifications

  • Latvia (item 2): during the 2–10 November exercise the NBS are inspecting Baltic Defence Line elements in Alūksne, Balvi and Ludza municipalities; the first new mobile surveillance device is being tested in Krāslava municipality.
  • Estonia, Lithuania. No new data on bunkers, ditches or barriers dated within the window.
  • Poland. No new data on "Tarcza Wschód" dated 2–3 November; on the unit for defending the Kaliningrad border, see item 6 (single source).

Deployment and movement of troops

  • Latvia (items 1, 2): troops and vehicles moving near the Russian border as part of the NBS exercise; air defence on the eastern border reinforced.
  • Poland (item 3): "Koalicja" at Nowa Dęba on 9–22 November, with Estonia and Lithuania among participants. We are not opening an exercise page: the training area is in Podkarpackie voivodeship, outside the Baltic coverage area, and the size of the Estonian and Lithuanian contingents has not been given.
  • Lithuania. LRT (02.11): Lithuanian military medics are serving with Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 1 (SNMCMG1).
  • Exercises: Resolute Reforger 2026 in Latvia continues until 8 November, "Budri pelėda" in Lithuania until 4 December; on 2 November the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence's Crossed Swords 2026 began in Tallinn (more than 250 specialists from more than 40 countries, ERR, Russian). Zapad-2026 is not taking place; Ussisõnad-2026 is not independently confirmed. No new Baltic Fleet exercises dated 2–3 November were found.

Agreements and spending

  • Latvia. Latvian Ministry of Defence and LSM (02.11): procurement centre VALIC signed a five-year framework agreement with Canada's Galvion for tactical helmets, one of the first agreements between an EU member state and a Canadian company under the SAFE instrument; other countries may join the framework.
  • Latvia. LSM (02.11): NATO's DiBaX 2026 experiment (19–30 October) was held in Latvia for the fifth time, testing 5G and satellite communications under jamming for "grey zone" scenarios such as drone intrusions and undersea cable incidents.
  • Estonia. ERR (03.11): President Ülle Madise convened the first regular meeting of the National Defence Council to discuss the defence development plan; a press conference is scheduled for 14:15, after this issue was built.
  • Lithuania. LRT citing ELTA (03.11): President Gitanas Nausėda is on an official visit to Germany on 3–4 November; the agenda covers defence, the defence industry and support for Ukraine, and he will speak at the Berlin Security Conference.

Military aid and air defence/EW

  • Latvia (item 1): fighters of NATO's air policing mission were scrambled; no reports of weapons being used.
  • Poland / Latvia. Defence24 (02.11): Poland's Military Institute of Armament Technology is involved in developing the Latvian Blaze interceptor (Origin Robotics) used on 1 November.
  • Estonia. ERR (Russian, 02.11): acting Chancellor of Justice Olari Koppel found that the Defence Forces and the Defence Resources Agency (KRA) broke the law by refusing a reservist a place on the Legio mission training Ukrainian soldiers on the basis of archived criminal record data.

Kaliningrad and Russian border regions

  • Kaliningrad oblast (items 5, 6): according to Defence24, the 21 October Su-30SM crash resulted from a mid-air collision; according to Novy Kaliningrad, Poland is forming a unit to defend the border with the oblast. No new Baltic Fleet reports were found in the window.
  • Pskov and Leningrad oblasts, St Petersburg: no reports of downed drones or of Pskov airport closing on 2–3 November; the Russian Defence Ministry's daytime summary on 2 November (22 drones) does not include north-western regions (Interfax). Pulkovo adjusted its schedule on the morning of 3 November because of restrictions in Moscow (Fontanka).
  • Belarus. No new reports of military activity near the borders of Lithuania, Latvia or Poland in the window.
  • Russia's position. No official Moscow comment on the Latvian episodes, the Estonian expulsion or the Koalicja exercise was found in the window.

Statements by officials

  • W. Streeting, UK Defence Secretary, 03.11 (GOV.UK): "This isn't a hypothetical plan, it's a real force, ready to help Ukraine once the fighting stops."
  • M. Tsahkna, Estonian Foreign Minister, 02.11 (ERR, Russian): "we will not tolerate activity that undermines our security".
  • S. Witkoff, US special envoy, 02.11 (TVNET/LETA): the Abu Dhabi talks will focus on "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian aid and next steps towards peace".
  • Dz. Adlers, mayor of Alūksne, 02.11 (LSM citing LETA): "We must not wait any longer. We need to act in substance."
  • Col. M. Pietrzak, Polish General Staff spokesperson, 02.11 (Defence24): a post on "astroturfing" was deleted because the army had "become a party to a political discussion"; it was educational and did not refer to the protests over the Constitutional Tribunal.

⚠️ Contradictions and discrepancies

  • Timing of the overnight alert in Latvia. LSM citing the NBS: 0:07–0:33; LETA (in TVNET and Delfi): 0:10–0:35. A difference of a few minutes that does not affect the substance.
  • Number of countries in Koalicja. The UK MoD speaks of forces "from 11 nations"; the joint London–Paris statement as reported by LRT/ELTA lists 10 countries in the land and air parts plus Turkey, which runs a maritime simulation from Istanbul. The difference probably depends on whether Turkey is counted; Defence24 citing Le Monde also mentions Ukrainian troops. A counting difference, not a factual one.
  • Cause of the Su-30 crash in Kaliningrad oblast. The Russian Defence Ministry gave no cause; Defence24, based on photos of a second aircraft, reports a mid-air collision. This is new single-source information and does not contradict earlier reports. The 22 October issue did not state a cause, so no correction is needed.
  • Object in Balvi municipality. The council chairman names the crash site (near Tilža) but stresses he has no other information; the NBS speaks of preliminary information. The object's type, origin and flight path are not established, and sources do not yet allow it to be linked to the 1 November episode or to the war in Ukraine.
  • No new errors in previous issues requiring an entry in the corrections log were found.

📊 Escalation risk assessment (0–10): 5.3 / 10

Overall score: 5.3 / 10. Closest historical analogue — the tense stand-off of the late Cold War (≈3–4), with a noticeable premium for frequent drone incursions, dense exercises near borders and hybrid pressure. Below Able Archer 1983 (≈7) and the run-up to 2008/2014 (≈6–7): no weapons have been used against NATO territory, and no movement of Russian or Belarusian troops towards the borders of the Baltic states and Poland is confirmed by fresh sources.

Drivers on the side of Russia and its ally:

  • The war in Ukraine on the Baltic doorstep: two incursions into Latgale in two days, and in the second case the object, according to preliminary data, came down on Latvian territory.
  • Intelligence activity: Estonia expelled a man whom KAPO links to Russian intelligence services and influence networks.

Drivers on the side of NATO and individual members:

  • The Koalicja exercise: the first rehearsal of deploying a European force for Ukraine; Moscow has previously called this coalition warmongers, and the announcement may draw a harsh response.
  • Military activity near the borders with Russia and Kaliningrad: the NBS exercise in the border area and, per a single source, a new border defence unit in Poland. Both are defensive measures, but Moscow usually portrays such steps as a build-up.

Mutual / structural factors:

  • Risk of error in the air: short reaction windows, unidentified objects and fighter scrambles over border areas.
  • Hybrid attacks on civilian infrastructure (shop refrigeration systems) with no identified perpetrator raise general nervousness but are not a military factor.

Stabilisers (both sides):

  • The negotiating track: the US announced Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November and consultations with Europeans and NATO in Brussels.
  • Restraint and transparency: the Latvian side informs the public quickly and avoids hasty conclusions about objects' origin; MNF-U stresses that deployment is possible only after a ceasefire.
  • No incidents involving Russian or Belarusian armed forces near the borders of the Baltic states and Poland in the window.

Reasoning: the main change compared with 2 November is an object that, according to preliminary data, came down on Latvian territory rather than just passing through, and that this happened again less than two days later, this time with NATO fighters scrambled. That justifies a small increase. The Koalicja announcement adds a risk of a sharp Moscow reaction, while the Abu Dhabi talks offset it, so the increase is limited to 0.1.

Delta vs previous issue: ↑ (+0.1) — 5.2 (2 November) → 5.3 (3 November). Reason: a repeat incursion into Latvia with the object coming down and NATO fighters scrambled; the diplomatic track holds back further growth.

Disclaimer: this is an analytical assessment based on open sources, not a forecast.

Sources