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Issue of November 13, 2026 · FridayNo. 164

Kremlin: Putin receives Witkoff and Kushner; the negotiating track will continue and prisoner swap parameters are being agreed

5.4/10 elevated ↓ -0.1vs. previous issue
In this issue ▾
  1. Top stories of the day
  2. By area, in detail
  3. Contradictions and discrepancies
  4. Escalation risk assessment (0–10)
  5. Sources

Issue of 13 November 2026 — covering 12–13 November 2026

Note: on 12–13 November no new drone incursions or border incidents were recorded in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland; the main events moved into diplomacy: Putin received Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the Kremlin, after which Kushner said Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to include Europeans in the next round of talks, while Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov did not answer a direct question on this. At the European Political Community summit in Dublin the leaders of Poland and the Baltic states publicly rejected "spheres of influence" and any rewriting of the security architecture "over our heads". St Petersburg's Fontanka, citing an anonymous source, wrote that the bomb used to kill a colonel in Slavyanka was delivered by balloon "from the direction of the Baltics"; this version has not been officially confirmed. (Previous issue — 12 November 2026, risk 5.5/10.)

Top stories of the day

  1. 12.11 — Kremlin: Putin receives Witkoff and Kushner; the negotiating track will continue and prisoner swap parameters are being agreed. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov after the meeting (Fontanka, 12.11, 20:41): "It was agreed that this negotiating process and this negotiating track will continue"; another contact is expected before a planned Putin–Trump meeting in China; the parameters of the large swap discussed in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November "are currently being agreed", with no dates or numbers. On the Europeans, Ushakov said they "must decide whether they want peace or continued war"; asked whether Putin backed a European role, he gave no direct answer. Kushner (on X, via Fontanka, 13.11): a "very detailed and productive" meeting; "both sides have now agreed to expand the next round of talks to include our European partners"; a schedule and details are promised soon. Witkoff announced a new round without dates or venue (Fontanka, Bloomberg). ⚠️ Contradiction: Kushner's and Ushakov's accounts of Europe's participation differ (see section below). Sources: Fontanka, Bloomberg, Kyiv Independent.

  2. 12.11 — Dublin: Polish and Baltic leaders reject "spheres of influence"; Zelensky meets the US envoys. On the sidelines of the European Political Community summit Volodymyr Zelensky met leaders of 13 countries, including Donald Tusk, Kristen Michal, Andris Kulbergs and Gitanas Nausėda; topics were air defence missiles, energy, shelters, contributions to the PURL programme and security guarantees; the next coordination is a "coalition of the willing" meeting in Berlin next week (Defence24 citing PAP). Nausėda (LRT): "There should be no spheres of influence", a withdrawal of NATO forces from eastern Europe "must not happen"; Russia, in his view, will "try to buy time and pretend to negotiate". Tusk (Defence24 citing PAP): "We will not build a new architecture because the Russian president or, for example, someone in the US wishes it." Kaja Kallas (ERR, 12.11) holds that under the treaties Europe is represented on security by European Council President António Costa and the High Representative, i.e. herself. In the evening Zelensky met Witkoff and Kushner at Casement Aerodrome near Dublin; he reported agreement on the largest prisoner exchange since 2022 and on Europe's participation in the next round (Kyiv Independent, Bloomberg). Sources: Defence24, LRT, ERR, Kyiv Independent, Bloomberg, Irish Times.

  3. 12.11 — St Petersburg: Fontanka says the bomb for the colonel was delivered by balloon "from the direction of the Baltics"; no official confirmation. According to Fontanka (12.11, 13:27), citing an unnamed source, the improvised explosive device was "according to preliminary data" moved into Leningrad oblast by balloon; an unknown person collected the package and left it for the perpetrator; the outlet gives the balloon's origin as "from the direction of the Baltics" without naming a country and without citing investigators. The suspect is a 31-year-old St Petersburg resident born in Pskov oblast: at about 01:00 he attached the device under the car on Kolpinskoye Highway and at 02:43 flew to Istanbul (Fontanka). The balloon version was repeated by Novy Kaliningrad and several Russian outlets, including Vesti.ru (access blocked by Baltic regulators — no direct link), all citing Fontanka. According to a single (anonymous) source, no independent confirmation. No comment from the Investigative Committee, the FSB or the authorities of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania was found at the time of writing. Sources: Fontanka, Novy Kaliningrad.

  4. 12.11 — Poland: decision on a permanent US base expected on 3–4 December; the Pentagon is preparing to expand the APS-2 depots at Powidz. Deputy Defence Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka (TVN24 as reported by RMF24, 12.11): the document on a permanent base is to go to Trump, "3–4 December should be that date"; the base is in western Poland and the site has nearly been chosen (single source). Defence24 (12.11), based on US Army project documents: the five storage buildings at Powidz (about 80 M1A2SEPv3 tanks, about 150 M2A4 and M7A4 vehicles, 18 M109A7 howitzers — a full armoured brigade set) are to be joined by two more storage buildings and two maintenance halls, enough for another brigade; work starts in 2029, cost not disclosed. Sources: RMF24, Defence24.

  5. 12.11 — Estonia: Herem promises targeted drone alerts on the Ukrainian model; the Defence League will train in Narva on 14–15 November. Defence Minister Martin Herem (ETV "Terevisioon", ERR, 12.11): alerts will show where a drone is heading so residents can decide for themselves; results in about six months. Argo Kerb, head of the Rescue Board's alert service: the app will work even in silent mode. The Defence League's Northeast district will hold urban training for its junior NCO course on 14–15 November on the grounds of the Baltic Power Plant in Narva, with blank cartridges and smoke devices, but no simulation at night (ERR, citing the Narva city website). Sources: ERR (Russian service).

  6. 12.11 — Lithuania: five detained in a case of cigarette smuggling by weather balloons from Belarus; charges include helping another state. The Criminal Police Bureau, Kaunas regional prosecutors and the "Aras" unit carried out 16 searches in Alytus, Druskininkai, Varėna and Lazdijai districts; investigators say the group's leaders coordinated balloon launches with partners in Belarus (LRT/BNS, 12.11). Charges include forming a criminal group, smuggling and "helping another state act against the Republic of Lithuania". Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius (LRT, 12.11): "Smuggling volumes, the numbers, don't satisfy me", and he will demand accountability from the border guard. Sources: LRT.

  7. 12.11 — Nordic countries prepare an agreement on rapid troop movement across each other's borders. Norwegian Defence Minister Tore Sandvik (ERR citing "Aktuaalne kaamera", 12.11): the deal would let the armed forces of the region's countries quickly enter neighbours' territory; it is the first such agreement since Finland and Sweden joined NATO; practical obstacles remain even on simple issues, he said. Participants and timing were not named. Source: ERR (Russian service).

By area, in detail

Construction of military facilities and fortifications

  • Poland, Powidz (Defence24, 12.11): expansion of the US Army APS-2 equipment storage and maintenance complex (two storage buildings, two maintenance halls; work from 2029), see item 4.
  • Baltic Defence Line, "East Shield". No new reports dated within the window on kilometres of ditches, bunkers or obstacles for 12–13 November were found.

Troop deployments and movements

  • Poland — US: decision on a permanent base expected 3–4 December (item 4); the six-month review of the US presence in Europe is due to end by year-end (RMF24).
  • Eastern flank logistics (Defence24 analysis, 12.11): moving large NATO formations to the Baltics could take weeks; according to a NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence report (September 2026), a major conflict could require about 45% of Europe's civilian aviation fuel for the military. Force estimates: the British battlegroup in Estonia (about 800 British personnel, 1,200 from April 2027), the Canadian-led brigade in Latvia (over 3,500), Germany's 45th Armoured Brigade in Lithuania (about 5,000 by end-2027).
  • Exercises. Defence League in Narva — 14–15 November (item 5). According to earlier issues, Koalicja 26.2 in Poland runs to 22 November, Freedom Shield 26-II and Grand Eagle 26 in Lithuania to 3 December. Zapad-2026 is not taking place; Ussisõnad-2026 is not independently confirmed.

Agreements and spending

  • Nordic countries — draft military mobility agreement (item 7).
  • Estonia — Ukraine (ERR, 13.11): an additional €6.5 million for winter preparation — €4.5 million for delivering locomotives (together with Estonian railway companies) and €2 million for the SPUR 2.0 recovery programme; Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna: since the full-scale invasion Russia has destroyed more than 600 Ukrainian locomotives.

Military aid and air defence / EW

  • Estonia: targeted drone alert system within six months (item 5). Estonian Air Force pilot Second Lieutenant Jasper Vimm (Maaleht via ERR News, 12.11): Estonian aircraft stay at least a kilometre from the Russian border and never fly east of Lake Peipus; the Air Force has two L-39 trainers and two M28 transports; buying light fighters is being discussed, type not chosen.
  • Lithuania: Prime Minister Sinkevičius promises decisions on automatic opening of shelters in November (LRT, 12.11).
  • Finland (Defense News, The Moscow Times, 12.11): the Defence Forces confirmed they detected a strike on a Russian warship in the Gulf of Finland on 11 November and stressed that the regional security situation remains stable.

Kaliningrad and Russia's border regions

  • St Petersburg and Leningrad oblast: Fontanka's balloon "from the direction of the Baltics" version (item 3) — a single, anonymous source. Russia's Defence Ministry said 1,198 drones were intercepted over many regions overnight into 13 November, but according to Fontanka none reached the North-West (Russian-side data, not independently verified). Russia still says nothing about the state of the Naro-Fominsk corvette.
  • Kaliningrad oblast (Novy Kaliningrad, 12.11): subsidies for sea transport to the region were added to amendments to the federal budget; the same day local resident Mariya Bontsler was sentenced to 12 years for treason (details of the charge are not disclosed in the materials found). No reports of Baltic Fleet sorties or exercises in the oblast during the window were found.
  • Border with Finland (Fontanka, 12.11): Finnish border guards detained a person who crossed from the Russian side.
  • Belarus: no troop movements toward the Lithuanian and Polish borders reported; Lithuanian investigators link the smuggling balloons to partners in Belarus (item 6).

Official statements

  • Y. Ushakov, Russian presidential aide, 12.11 (Fontanka): Europeans "must decide whether they want peace or continued war"; "We hope the signals from Moscow will be carefully conveyed to them."
  • J. Kushner, US presidential envoy, 12–13.11 (Fontanka, Bloomberg): Moscow and Kyiv agreed to include European partners in the next round.
  • G. Nausėda, President of Lithuania, 12.11 (LRT): "There should be no spheres of influence"; the simplest legal option for Europe's representative is António Costa.
  • D. Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland (Defence24 citing PAP, published 12.11): "In no case will we allow" security to be decided "over our heads".
  • K. Kallas, EU High Representative, 12.11 (ERR): a European security architecture already exists (Helsinki Final Act and others), "the only problem is that Russia does not observe these agreements".
  • M. Herem, Estonian Defence Minister, 12.11 (ERR): the new alerts will show the drone's flight direction.
  • T. Sandvik, Norwegian Defence Minister, 12.11 (ERR): "That is why we are now creating the basis for even closer cooperation."
  • M. Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, Polish Deputy Defence Minister, 12.11 (RMF24): "3–4 December should be that date."

⚠️ Contradictions and discrepancies

  • Europe's participation in the next round. Kushner (13.11) and Zelensky (12.11): both sides agreed to include Europeans. Ushakov (12.11): Europeans "must decide", and he gave no answer on Putin's position. There is no official Kremlin confirmation of Moscow's consent at the time of writing; assessment: Kushner's statement so far rests only on the US and Ukrainian sides.
  • Balloon "from the direction of the Baltics". Fontanka's version relies on an anonymous source and is called preliminary; an earlier Fontanka piece on the suspect (12.11, 12:48) does not mention a balloon, no launch country is named, and investigators have not stated this version publicly. Reprints by other outlets are not independent confirmation. Assessment: not established.
  • Russian demands for NATO withdrawal. Defence24 writes that in Abu Dhabi the Russian delegation repeated its 2021 demands for withdrawing or reducing NATO forces in countries that joined after 1997, but cites no primary source; Le Parisien (as relayed by Defence24) describes this as a possible scenario, and Sergei Lavrov said on 10 November only that the security architecture should be defined before a ceasefire. Nausėda publicly rejected "demands" for a withdrawal on 12 November. Whether such a list was formally presented in 2026 has not been established from the sources found.
  • Clarification to the 12 November issue. It said no Polish reaction to the FSB claim of detaining two "Polish intelligence agents" had been found at the time of writing. In fact there was a reaction on 11 November: Jacek Dobrzyński, spokesman for the minister coordinating the special services, called the reports "provocation and disinformation", and Foreign Ministry spokesman Maciej Wewiór said the ministry was verifying the reports and urged caution about FSB statements (Defence24 citing Interia). This is an addition, not a factual error; no corrections log entry is needed.
  • No new substantive errors in previous issues requiring a corrections log entry were identified.

📊 Escalation risk assessment (0–10): 5.4 / 10

Final score: 5.4 / 10. Closest historical analogue — tense late Cold War standoff (≈3–4) with a premium for strikes on Russian military targets near NATO's Baltic borders, NATO's recent use of weapons against drones and the sabotage war between intelligence services. Below Able Archer 1983 (≈7) and the run-up to 2008/2014 (≈6–7).

Drivers on the side of Russia and its ally:

  • Rhetoric: Ushakov offers Europeans a choice of "peace or continued war"; Lavrov ties a ceasefire to a new European security architecture.
  • Information space: the anonymous version of a bomb delivered by balloon "from the direction of the Baltics" is being amplified by Russian media; unconfirmed, it could become the basis for accusations against the Baltic states.
  • Belarus: according to Lithuanian investigators, smuggling balloons are launched from the Belarusian side.

Drivers on the side of NATO and individual members:

  • US presence: Poland expects a decision on a permanent base in early December, and an expansion of the equipment depots at Powidz is being prepared — Moscow traditionally treats this as a threat.
  • Mobility: Nordic countries are preparing an agreement on rapid troop movement across borders.

Mutual / structural factors:

  • War at NATO's borders: the aftermath of the strike on the Naro-Fominsk corvette in the Gulf of Finland and massive drone attacks on Russia keep the risk of airspace incidents over the Baltics.
  • Sabotage war: the killing of a colonel in St Petersburg and mutual espionage accusations between Russia and Poland.

Stabilisers (both sides):

  • Talks: Putin received the US envoys, the track will continue, parameters of a large swap are being agreed; Kushner speaks of consent to Europe's participation.
  • Quiet borders: no drone incursions or border incidents in the Baltics and Poland on 12–13 November; Finland calls the situation stable; no Russian or Belarusian troop movements noted.
  • Unified position: Polish and Baltic leaders publicly and consistently reject "spheres of influence" while staying within diplomacy.

Rationale: after two days at 5.5, the day passed without new incidents at the borders, and the negotiating track was extended and, according to the US account, widened to include Europe. The anonymous balloon "from the direction of the Baltics" version and the Kremlin's harsh tone toward Europeans hold back a larger decline.

Delta vs previous issue: ↓ (−0.1) — 5.5 (12 November) → 5.4 (13 November). Reason: no new incidents and continued talks, with information risks persisting.

Disclaimer: this is an analytical assessment based on open sources, not a forecast.

Sources