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Issue of November 12, 2026 · ThursdayNo. 163

Lithuania: two interception attempts and two missiles, the drone was not shot down

5.5/10 elevated = 0.0vs. previous issue
In this issue ▾
  1. Top stories of the day
  2. By area, in detail
  3. Contradictions and discrepancies
  4. Escalation risk assessment (0–10)
  5. Sources

Issue of 12 November 2026 — covering 11–12 November 2026

Note: the drone that crossed Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia overnight into 11 November was never shot down: Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas said NATO fighters fired two missiles at it, costing "hundreds of thousands, not millions" of euros, while Estonia said it had allowed no one to use its airspace for drones and passed that message to Ukraine's ambassador. The same night, according to Ukraine's SBU, the Baltic Fleet small missile ship Naro-Fominsk was hit near Gogland island in the Gulf of Finland; Estonia's defence minister confirmed an explosion on board, Finland detected the attack, and Moscow did not comment. The Abu Dhabi talks ended with agreement on a large prisoner exchange, and on 12 November Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow; that morning a colonel's car was blown up in Shushary, St Petersburg. (Previous issue — 11 November 2026, risk 5.5/10.)

Top stories of the day

  1. 11.11 — Lithuania: two interception attempts and two missiles, the drone was not shot down; the defence minister put a price on the missiles. Chief of Defence Staff Rear Admiral Gediminas Premeneckas (LRT, 11.11): NATO fighters found the drone over Kaunas but did not fire over a densely populated area; later, closer to Biržai, they were able to open fire, but the drone was not destroyed. "One missile missed, fell and was later found in Biržai district." He said the drone came in from Belarus, briefly entered Poland, returned to Lithuania and then left through Latvia and Estonia into Russia; what it was and whether it carried explosives is not yet known, most likely it was a strayed participant in the massive Ukrainian attack on Russia (an assumption, not a finding). Defence minister Robertas Kaunas (LRT, 11.11, 21:29): two missiles were fired; he would not say where the second one is; the missiles cost "hundreds of thousands, not millions" of euros, costs fall under a NATO and partner budget line, and Lithuania's share as host nation is being negotiated. The aircraft's nationality has not been officially disclosed. ⚠️ Contradiction: Poland does not confirm that the drone entered its airspace (see section below). Sources: LRT, Novy Kaliningrad (citing LRT), Defence24.

  2. 11.11 — Gulf of Finland: SBU says it hit the small missile ship Naro-Fominsk near Gogland; Estonia's defence minister confirms an explosion. According to the SBU, its drones struck the Project 21631 Buyan-M small missile ship Naro-Fominsk (a Kalibr and Oniks carrier launched in 2022) (Militarnyi, ERR). Estonian defence minister Martin Herem (ERR News, 11.11): at about 05:30 an explosion occurred on a Baltic Fleet ship in the Gulf of Finland, smoke rose from it, and the ship headed towards St Petersburg; "All we know beyond that is that the Ukrainians have said they attacked the ship." A senior Finnish official confirmed to Yle that Finland detected an attack near Gogland island (about 40 km from Finland and 55 km from Estonia); that night the Finnish Defence Forces temporarily restricted air and sea traffic in the eastern part of the gulf. Russia's defence ministry and the Baltic Fleet, according to the sources found, did not comment; the extent of damage and casualties are unknown, and Telegram channel claims of deaths are not included. Sources: ERR News, Yle, Militarnyi, ERR (Russian service).

  3. 11.11 — Estonia: drones briefly entered its airspace; Tallinn told Kyiv it had given no permission. Herem (ERR News, 11.11): at about 03:30 one drone briefly entered from the direction of Latvia and left for Russia; several drones that had reached Ust-Luga turned west and circled over the Gulf of Finland in Russian airspace, some briefly crossing into Estonian airspace. Shooting right at the border, he said, would not make sense; he sees no need to change air defence procedures and hopes for progress on a more detailed public warning system within six months. Prime Minister Kristen Michal (ERR, 11.11): "Estonia has not given any foreign state permission to use our airspace for drones"; the foreign ministry passed this to Ukraine's ambassador, NATO allies were informed, and the government security committee met in the evening. Foreign minister Margus Tsahkna (ERR, citing preliminary Police and Border Guard Board data): the drone swarm near the Russian warship came from Russian airspace. Air policing fighters, including Turkish jets, took off from Ämari. Sources: ERR News, ERR (Russian service).

  4. 11.11 — Latvia: the army counted three drones in its airspace, conditions did not allow destroying them. National Armed Forces (LSM, 11.11): two drones crossed the eastern border for 1–2 minutes, a third flew across Latvia from south to north (from Lithuania) and left for Estonia; at least three more approached the border near Balvi and turned into Russia, and one approached from Belarus without crossing. NAF commander Kaspars Pudāns linked the alerts to the Ukrainian attack on port and oil facilities in Leningrad oblast, cautioning that without material evidence it is hard to say what the craft were. There were no "suitable conditions" to destroy the long-flying drone given civilian safety; the NAF will review its response. Interceptor drone units are deployed only on the eastern border. Source: LSM.

  5. 11–12.11 — Abu Dhabi: agreement on a large prisoner exchange; US envoys flew to Putin. The two-day US–Ukraine–Russia talks ended on 11 November without a breakthrough but with agreement on what Kushner called the biggest ever prisoner exchange; the sides gave no concrete figure, and Volodymyr Zelensky spoke of a possible "1,000 for 1,000, maybe it will even come to 1,200" (France 24, The Hill). Ukraine's chief negotiator Rustem Umerov said significant differences remain (Kyiv Independent). Vladimir Medinsky on the Europeans: "We don't really understand what there is to talk about with them", Moscow's aim being a "new, modern Yalta" (France 24). On 12 November Witkoff and Kushner arrived in Moscow and then plan to go to Dublin to see Zelensky (France 24, CNN). Sources: France 24, The Hill, Kyiv Independent, CNN.

  6. 12.11 — St Petersburg: a colonel's car blown up in Shushary. At about 07:00 on Kolpinskoye highway (Slavyanka) a car exploded as a serviceman with the rank of colonel was driving out of a courtyard; he was killed, he was alone in the car, and the windows of a passing bus were blown out (Fontanka, 47news). According to preliminary information the device was attached under the car and detonated remotely. The Investigative Committee opened a murder case. It is the second car bombing of a serviceman in the area in three months (The Insider, 47news). His name and post have not been officially released. Sources: Fontanka, 47news, The Insider.

  7. 11.11 — Poland, Independence Day: Nawrocki on a "predictable ally", Kukuła gets a second term; Moscow again warns against travel to Poland. President Karol Nawrocki on Piłsudski Square: "Poland will be a solid, stable and predictable ally on security", security "must stay outside the often brutal, radical political dispute". He handed Gen. Wiesław Kukuła his appointment for a second term as Chief of the General Staff (from 10 October) and promoted ten officers to general rank (Defence24). The same day Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova again urged Russians to avoid travel to Poland, where the situation, she said, "continues to deteriorate" (Novy Kaliningrad citing TASS — access blocked by Baltic regulators — no direct link). Sources: Defence24, Novy Kaliningrad.

By area, in detail

Construction of military facilities and fortifications

  • Estonia, Setomaa (ERR News, 11.11): almost 23 km of anti-tank ditches have been dug and 28 Baltic Defence Line bunkers installed on private land near the Russian border; work has been under way since September. The village of Vinski (seven households, one road) now sits between the border fence and a line of dragon's teeth and ditches; a second exit and a drainage pond have been built for residents, and the parties have drafted a memorandum of intent.
  • Latvia, Lithuania, "Tarcza Wschód". No new reports dated within the window on kilometres of ditches or bunkers for 11–12 November were found.

Troop deployments and movements

  • US in Lithuania (Kaunas, LRT, 11.11): two US battalions will hold a flag-raising ceremony on 16 November, on a standard nine-month rotation; Lithuania seeks a permanent presence or longer rotations, talks are ongoing, and scale and Lithuania's contribution are not disclosed.
  • NATO planning (Politico via ERR, 11.11): in draft new readiness targets allies are discussing replacing the requirement of "a major war in Europe AND several crisis missions" with "OR"; the aim is to agree the text by February; the Pentagon, the outlet reports, will publish its review of the European presence next month.
  • Exercises. Koalicja 26.2 in Poland — until 22 November; Freedom Shield 26-II and Grand Eagle 26 in Lithuania — until 3 December. Zapad-2026 is not being held; Ussisõnad-2026 is not independently confirmed.

Agreements and spending

  • Lithuania — France (LRT/BNS, published 11.11, remarks made 10.11): according to Gitanas Nausėda, Emmanuel Macron promised to look for ways to speed up deliveries of Caesar self-propelled howitzers; the second contract with KNDS France is worth €252 million (December 2025), and the first batch of 18 howitzers under the 2022 contract is expected in 2027.
  • Lithuania — counter-drone system (Kaunas, LRT, 11.11): of 19 companies that applied, 12 were shortlisted and 3–4 have working prototypes; a contract is expected this year or early next year, with military testing around March–April 2027.

Military aid and air defence / EW

  • Lithuania: after a night of red alerts Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said unlocking of shelters must be automated (LRT, 11.11); warnings went out under a new algorithm, and new radars, Kaunas said, detected the target quickly.
  • Estonia: Herem says the Defence Forces have been on heightened drone readiness since spring, and data sharing with Finland, Latvia and Lithuania works (ERR News).
  • Latvia: interceptor drones are deployed only on the eastern border (LSM).

Kaliningrad and Russia's border regions

  • Leningrad oblast and the Gulf of Finland (items 2, 6): the strike on Naro-Fominsk; Russia's defence ministry reported 627 drones intercepted overnight into 11 November over many regions including Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov oblasts; governor Alexander Drozdenko reported 150 shot down over Leningrad oblast (Fontanka; Russian figures, not independently verified).
  • Kaliningrad oblast: no Polish reaction to the FSB's 11 November claim of detaining two "Polish intelligence agents" was found at the time of compilation. No reports of Baltic Fleet sorties or exercises in the region within the window.
  • Belarus: according to the Lithuanian military the drone entered Lithuania from Belarusian airspace; Kaunas (LRT): there is "no such information at this moment" on Belarusian involvement, and a link between smuggling balloons and drones cannot be confirmed. No troop movements near the borders of the Baltic states and Poland were reported.

Official statements

  • K. Michal, Prime Minister of Estonia, 11.11 (ERR): "Every such incident at our borders and in the Baltic Sea must be taken very seriously."
  • M. Herem, Estonian defence minister, 11.11 (ERR News): shooting down a drone right at the Russian border "would not make sense"; Russia does the same at its own border.
  • R. Kaunas, Lithuanian defence minister, 11.11 (LRT): the missiles are a matter of "hundreds of thousands, not millions of euros"; on timing for kinetic counter-drone means, "let's not speculate".
  • G. Premeneckas, Lithuanian Chief of Defence Staff, 11.11 (LRT): the decision not to fire over Kaunas was taken because of dense housing.
  • K. Pudāns, Latvian NAF commander, 11.11 (LSM): the alerts were most likely linked to the Ukrainian attack on Leningrad oblast.
  • K. Nawrocki, President of Poland, 11.11 (Defence24): "Security is owed to all of you."
  • V. Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, 11.11 (France 24): the aim is a "new, modern Yalta".

⚠️ Contradictions and discrepancies

  • Did the drone enter Poland. Lithuania's NKVC head Vilmantas Vitkauskas and the military: the drone briefly entered Polish airspace from Lithuania and returned. Poland's Operational Command (DORSZ), Lt Col Jacek Goryszewski (Onet, via Defence24): "At this moment we do not confirm that Polish airspace was violated", possibly it was a "weather anomaly". The discrepancy is unresolved.
  • How many missiles were fired. The 11 November issue referred to one missile whose debris was found near Biržai (based on the Prime Minister's first statement). On 11 November minister Kaunas clarified: there were two attempts and two missiles; the location of the second is not disclosed. This is an update as information came in, not an error in the issue.
  • Drones entering Estonia. The 11 November issue, based on early ERR reports, said no drone entry into Estonia had been reported. Later Herem confirmed brief entries (one drone from the direction of Latvia at about 03:30, several over the Gulf of Finland), and LSM said the long-flying drone left Latvia for Estonia. The issue's wording reflected the state of reports at compile time; no correction log entry is needed.
  • Whose fighters fired. Not officially disclosed. Defence24, citing Euronews, says Italian Eurofighters and Belgian and Turkish F-16s were on duty that night; which aircraft fired the missiles has not been established.
  • Naro-Fominsk. The strike is claimed by the SBU; Estonian and Finnish officials confirm the explosion and the attack but not the damage. Herem, as reported by ERR's Russian service, could not confirm whether it was a Ukrainian strike or an accident. Russia did not comment.
  • Size of the prisoner exchange. Zelensky: "1,000 for 1,000, maybe up to 1,200"; France 24: the sides gave no concrete figure; TASS, citing Lt Gen Alexander Zorin: more than 1,000 on each side (access blocked by Baltic regulators — no direct link). The final number has not been agreed.
  • Shushary bombing. Early reports of an injured relative in the car were later corrected by Fontanka: the colonel was alone. Reports of his post (some media say chief navigator of an air force and air defence army) are not officially confirmed and are not included.
  • No new substantive errors in previous issues requiring a correction log entry were found.

📊 Escalation risk assessment (0–10): 5.5 / 10

Final score: 5.5 / 10. Closest historical analogue — tense late Cold War confrontation (≈3–4) with a premium for strikes on Russian military targets right at NATO's Baltic borders, NATO use of weapons against drones in its own airspace and a sabotage war between intelligence services. Below Able Archer 1983 (≈7) and the run-up to 2008/2014 (≈6–7): there are no direct NATO–Russia clashes, and all sides publicly distance themselves from others' strikes.

Drivers on the Russian side and its ally:

  • Rhetoric: Medinsky names a "new Yalta" as the goal and sees nothing to discuss with the Europeans; Russia's foreign ministry again discourages travel to Poland after the FSB claim about "Polish agents".
  • Belarusian airspace: the drone entered Lithuania from Belarus, and smuggling balloons keep closing airports.

Drivers on the side of NATO and individual members:

  • Use of weapons: two NATO fighter missiles at a drone over Lithuania — a defensive act, but with debris falling on own territory.
  • Military presence: Lithuania seeks a permanent US presence, France promises faster Caesar deliveries — Moscow traditionally treats this as a threat.

Mutual / structural factors:

  • The war has moved into the Gulf of Finland: a Ukrainian strike on a Baltic Fleet ship about 40 km from Finland and 55 km from Estonia, drones at and inside Estonia's border; the risk of Moscow blaming the Baltic states rises, although Tallinn publicly denied involvement in advance.
  • Sabotage war: the second car bombing of a serviceman in St Petersburg in three months.

Stabilisers (both sides):

  • Talks: agreement on a large prisoner exchange, US envoys in Moscow, Zelensky speaks of a "window of opportunity".
  • Restraint: Estonia and Latvia did not fire near the Russian border, Tallinn and Riga publicly reject involvement in strikes, Finland limited itself to temporary precautions; land borders are calm, with no Russian or Belarusian troop movements.

Rationale: the strike on a Russian warship off Estonia and Finland and the colonel's killing in St Petersburg add tension, but are balanced by the first concrete result of talks in a long time (the prisoner exchange) and markedly defensive behaviour by NATO states. The score holds.

Delta vs previous issue: = (0.0) — 5.5 (11 November) → 5.5 (12 November). Reason: higher risks in the Baltic Sea offset by progress in Abu Dhabi and the US envoys' visit to Moscow.

Disclaimer: this is an analytical assessment based on open sources, not a forecast.

Sources