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Issue of November 7, 2026 · SaturdayNo. 158

Warsaw: Council of the Baltic Sea States ministers answer the US "European security architecture" plan: "Putin has no veto"

5.3/10 elevated = 0.0vs. previous issue
In this issue ▾
  1. Top stories of the day
  2. By area, in detail
  3. Contradictions and discrepancies
  4. Escalation risk assessment (0–10)
  5. Sources

Issue of 7 November 2026 — covering 6–7 November 2026

Note: on 6–7 November no drone incursions into the Baltic states or Poland, no border incidents and no reports of Russian or Belarusian troop movements were recorded; the window was shaped by Europe's response to the US plan for a "European security architecture": at a meeting of Council of the Baltic Sea States ministers in Warsaw, Kaja Kallas said Putin "does not have a veto over European security", and Gitanas Nausėda demanded that Europe take part in the talks. German-led exercises with more than 6,000 troops began in Lithuania, Lithuania's defence minister called the Kaliningrad border calmer than Poland's, a new US Army rotation arrived in Estonia, and Sergei Shoigu and Maria Zakharova accused Poland and the Baltic states of training people to destabilise Russia. (Previous issue — 6 November 2026, risk 5.3/10.)

Top stories of the day

  1. 06.11 — Warsaw: Council of the Baltic Sea States ministers answer the US "European security architecture" plan: "Putin has no veto". Kyiv Post (07.11) and Focus Europe (06.11): at an informal meeting of CBSS foreign ministers attended by Ukraine's foreign minister Andrii Sybiha and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, the ministers unanimously adopted a joint statement on the war in Ukraine and regional security. Kallas: "Any agreement that we are not party of, we are not going to implement either" and "Putin does not have a veto over European security." Radosław Sikorski called an arrangement over Europe's head "impossible" and said that "strengthening deterrence does not serve to escalate tensions"; Sybiha: "Russia is not and cannot be a guarantor of Europe's security." The trigger was a five-goal plan published by Jared Kushner (permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, a lasting framework for European security); Kushner says NATO "will remain central" to collective defence and that US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks will take place in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. Defence24 (06.11) quotes Marek Menkiszak (OSW): Russia scored a major political success because the US accepted its demand to link a settlement with a revision of European security. ⚠️ Contradiction: publication date of the plan (see section below). Sources: Kyiv Post, Focus Europe, Defence24.

  2. 06.11 — Lithuania: Nausėda at a Nordic-Baltic Eight video conference with Zelensky: Europe must take part in the talks and in designing the security architecture. LRT via ELTA (06.11, 19:50): Lithuania's president said Europe first needs a common position and a clear negotiating mandate, urged that Russia not be allowed to use the talks to weaken pressure, and called for swift agreement on the EU's 22nd sanctions package. "The current scale of support for Ukraine is not sufficient." According to the presidency, Lithuania's total military aid to Ukraine stands at EUR 1.2 billion, EUR 209 million of it this year. Source: LRT (ELTA).

  3. 06.11 — Lithuania: German-led exercises Freedom Shield 26-II and Grand Eagle 26 begin, with more than 6,000 NATO troops until 3 December. LRT via BNS (06.11, 11:14): the drills take place at the Rūdninkai and General Silvestras Žukauskas (Pabradė) training areas; participants include the Bundeswehr 10th Armoured Division's 45th Armoured Brigade "Litauen" and 37th Mechanised Infantry Brigade "Freistaat Sachsen", troops from the Netherlands, Norway, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Belgium and Luxembourg in NATO's multinational brigade in Lithuania, and a Lithuanian unit. Aims: combat readiness, planning and interoperability of Lithuanian, Polish and other allied forces. The heaviest convoy traffic from the Kalvarija checkpoint on the Polish border is expected on 6–7 November, from Klaipėda on 10–12 November, with the return movement on 28 November – 3 December. The data so far come from a single publication (BNS); the troop number is not independently confirmed. Source: LRT (BNS).

  4. 06.11 — Lithuania: defence minister Kaunas calls the situation on the Kaliningrad border "certainly calmer" than in Poland; the army deployment at the border is likely to be extended. LRT via BNS (06.11, 15:45; the Lithuanian version also 06.11): troops have been assisting the State Border Guard Service since 8 October, and in mid-October the deployment was extended to mid-November; Kaunas said a further extension is likely but depends on the latest intelligence assessments. "We have an aggressive neighbour, so we are reacting preventively at all times." He explained Warsaw's tougher measures by more movement near the border on the Polish side. Novy Kaliningrad (06.11, 14:21) relays the same statement. Sources: LRT, Novy Kaliningrad.

  5. 06.11 — Estonia: after a summer gap a new US Army rotation has arrived: Apache Troop, 5th Squadron, 4th Cavalry Regiment. ERR News (06.11): US Embassy spokesperson Kelli Long confirmed the unit's presence; the rotation is a planned nine-month one, and according to defence minister Martin Herem the advance team and equipment have been in the country for over a week. An uncasing ceremony marking the start of its presence across the Baltics will take place later in November in Lithuania. The previous unit left in the summer; former minister Hanno Pevkur linked the gap to a Pentagon review of US forces in Europe. Troop numbers were not given. Source: ERR.

  6. 06.11 — Russia: Shoigu claims there are "centres" training people to destabilise Russia in Poland and the Baltic states; Zakharova recalls the right to "asymmetric measures". Defence24 (06.11, 19:00): Security Council secretary Sergei Shoigu told TASS (tass.ru — access blocked by Baltic regulators — no direct link) that a minority of NGOs engage in destructive activity and that people are trained for it in Poland, the Baltic states and other countries. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded by citing paragraph 26 of the Foreign Policy Concept (decree No. 229 of 31 March 2023), which allows "symmetric and asymmetric" measures against states threatening Russia's sovereignty. Defence24 reads this as a veiled threat of escalation against the backdrop of the Polish operation at the Kaliningrad border. According to a single non-registry source; no independent confirmation of the wording. Sources: Defence24; TASS — no link.

  7. 06.11 — Latvia: Rinkēvičs says there have already been 13,000 violations on the Belarusian border this year, the most since 2021; border protection is "the first line of defence". LSM (Russian service, 06.11, 18:12): the president spoke in Jelgava at the ceremony for the 107th anniversary of the State Border Guard, called the violations direct attacks on Latvia's independence and security, and said he had signed a law giving border guards more legal protection: after amendments passed by the Saeima on 29 October they may also use weapons to repel attacks on border infrastructure. Operation "Vilkatis" has been extended to the end of the year. Source: LSM.

  8. 06–07.11 — Europe: hoax bomb threats continue, disrupting nearly 20 flights; the letter writers promise "this is only the beginning". Interfax (06.11, 17:31) reported nearly 20 affected flights; Interfax (07.11, 05:22), citing the Financial Times: the suspected authors of the letters promised to continue the campaign and threatened planes, cruise ships, metros and trains; on Friday letters also reached newsrooms including RTÉ and Sky News. No explosives were found; authorities have not established whether lone actors or a coordinated group are behind it. No flights to the Baltic states were named. Source: Interfax (citing FT).

By area, in detail

Construction of military facilities and fortifications

  • Estonia. ERR News (06.11): Turkey's ARCA (ARCA Baltics Operations OÜ) received a licence on 20 October for a large-calibre ammunition plant, including 155 mm shells, at the Põhja-Kiviõli defence industry park; investment EUR 300 million, the state will spend up to EUR 10 million on access roads and utilities, production from 2028, up to 1,000 jobs. ERR recalls that the company's founder was previously suspected of manipulating NATO contracts; the ministry says security agencies found no disqualifying factors.
  • Estonia. ERR News (06.11): residents near the Ermistu defence industry park (Pärnu County, 204 ha plus more than 100 ha for an ammunition depot) are worried about safety, noise and the state of the Männiku river; main infrastructure works start next summer, and the spatial plan is being challenged in court.
  • Latvia, Lithuania. No new data dated within the window on bunkers and obstacles of the Baltic Defence Line. No new official data on "Tarcza Wschód" in Poland for 6–7 November either.

Deployment and movement of troops

  • Lithuania (items 3, 4): exercises with more than 6,000 troops; army at the Kaliningrad border, likely extension.
  • Estonia (item 5): new US rotation.
  • Poland. Defence24 (06.11, 14:46): deputy prime minister and defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz will, "if all goes well", visit the Pentagon early next week: "We will talk about bases, about the presence of American soldiers." The Polish side estimates its investment in a permanent US base at PLN 15–17 billion; Poznań, Wrocław, Szczecin and Bydgoszcz are under consideration.
  • Exercises: Resolute Reforger 2026 in Latvia continues until 8 November, Latvian NAF exercises testing elements of the defence line until 10 November, "Koalicja" in Poland (Nowa Dęba) on 9–22 November. "Zapad-2026" is not taking place; "Ussisõnad-2026" is not independently confirmed. No new Baltic Fleet exercises found for 6–7 November.

Agreements and spending

  • European security (items 1, 2): CBSS and NB8 responses to the Kushner plan.
  • Finland. Interfax (06.11, citing Yle and MTV): the foreign ministry is preparing new entry restrictions for Russians, possibly including a ban on athletes; prime minister Petteri Orpo personally thinks it would be simpler "not to allow Russians to enter Finland at all", with a decision due shortly.

Military aid and air defence/EW

  • Poland. Defence24 (06.11, 17:07), citing Reuters: from 1 January 2027 France will take over, within NATO, the air defence of the area around Rzeszów-Jasionka airport, a key hub for aid to Ukraine; ambassador Etienne de Poncins: "France will take over responsibility for the air defence of the area around Rzeszów." The French system was not named; the Dutch Patriot mission ends in December 2026.
  • Latvia. LSM (English, 06.11): Latvia hosted a plenary session of the Electronic Warfare Coalition (15 countries, led by Germany together with Sweden and Ukraine); defence ministry parliamentary secretary Karina Ploka offered the "Sēlija" range for testing EW equipment. Sargs.lv (06.11): at a NAF-industry conference on unmanned systems, NAF commander Lt Gen Kaspars Pudāns called for keeping "leading positions" in the field.

Kaliningrad and Russian border regions

  • Kaliningrad oblast. Novy Kaliningrad (06.11, 15:54), citing TASS (tass.ru — access blocked by Baltic regulators — no direct link) and an anonymous air traffic control source: a US Bombardier Artemis II reconnaissance aircraft circled the region for the third time this week (Monday, Wednesday, Friday) in Polish and Lithuanian airspace at about 10.5 km. According to a single source; no independent confirmation. ⚠️ Contradiction: flight dates (see section below).
  • Lithuania (item 4): the border is calmer than the Polish section. No reports on the Baltic Fleet or troop movements found for the window.
  • Pskov and Leningrad oblasts, St Petersburg: the Russian MoD summary for the night to 7 November (411 drones) does not name any north-western region (Interfax, 07.11).
  • Belarus. No reports of military activity near the borders of Lithuania, Latvia and Poland found for the window; migration pressure on the Latvian section continues (item 7).
  • Russia's position (item 6): Shoigu and Zakharova. No official Moscow comment on the exercises in Lithuania or the US rotation in Estonia found for the window.

Statements by officials

  • K. Kallas, EU High Representative, 06.11 (Kyiv Post): "Putin does not have a veto over European security."
  • R. Sikorski, Polish foreign minister, 06.11 (Focus Europe): "Strengthening deterrence does not serve to escalate tensions."
  • G. Nausėda, President of Lithuania, 06.11 (LRT): "The current scale of support for Ukraine is not sufficient."
  • R. Kaunas, Lithuanian defence minister, 06.11 (LRT): "We have an aggressive neighbour, so we are reacting preventively at all times."
  • E. Rinkēvičs, President of Latvia, 06.11 (LSM): border protection is "not just border protection, but the first line of defence".
  • G. Kaju, Estonian Ministry of Defence, 06.11 (ERR News): Russia is stepping up strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure; he expects no breakthrough at the Abu Dhabi talks, as "neither side looks to be ready" for concessions.
  • W. Kosiniak-Kamysz, Polish defence minister, 06.11 (Defence24): "We will be at the Pentagon, we will talk about bases."

⚠️ Contradictions and discrepancies

  • Date of the Kushner plan. Kyiv Post and Yle Novosti date the five-goal plan to Thursday, 5 November (after a meeting in Brussels), Defence24 to 6 November. This is probably due to time zones and the date of republication; the content of the five points matches in all sources. The 6 November issue did not cover the plan: it was published after the build or was missed by the search.
  • Reading of the plan. Kushner stresses national sovereignty and NATO's central role; Menkiszak (OSW) and Defence24 see linking a settlement to a revision of European security as a return to Russia's 2021 demands. This is analysts' interpretation; there are no official documents.
  • Flights around Kaliningrad oblast. The 5 November issue, citing Novy Kaliningrad and RIA Novosti, dated the previous Artemis II flight to 1 November, while Defence24 wrote about a flight on 2 November; TASS now names flights on Monday (2 November), Wednesday (4 November) and Friday (6 November). The 2 November version is supported by two sources, but all flight data still come from an anonymous source of registry media.
  • Latvian border figures. LSM on 26 October, citing De Facto, reported more than 12,000 illegal crossing attempts prevented; Rinkēvičs on 6 November spoke of 13,000 "violations". The indicators are probably counted differently and grow over time; this is not a factual contradiction.
  • No new substantive errors in previous issues requiring an entry in the corrections log were identified.

📊 Escalation risk assessment (0–10): 5.3 / 10

Final score: 5.3 / 10. The closest historical analogue is the tense late Cold War standoff (≈3–4) with a premium for hybrid pressure, recent drone incursions and the density of military measures around the Suwałki Gap. Below Able Archer 1983 (≈7) and the run-up to 2008/2014 (≈6–7): no use of weapons against NATO territory and no border violations.

Drivers on the side of Russia and its ally:

  • Rhetoric: Shoigu accuses Poland and the Baltic states of training people to destabilise Russia, Zakharova recalls the right to "asymmetric measures" (single non-registry source).
  • Hybrid pressure: the hoax bomb threat campaign continues with promises of new attacks (attribution not established); a record number of Latvia-Belarus border violations since 2021.

Drivers on the side of NATO and individual members:

  • Exercises and presence: more than 6,000 NATO troops in exercises in Lithuania until 3 December, a new US rotation in Estonia, preparations for the Polish defence minister's Pentagon visit on a permanent base; Moscow traditionally portrays such steps as a threat.
  • Reconnaissance flights near Kaliningrad oblast (three this week, according to TASS).

Mutual / structural factors:

  • Dispute over the security architecture: a US plan without Europe's consent and the sharp response from the EU, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine increase uncertainty; Russia may exploit divisions within the West.

Stabilisers (both sides):

  • No incidents: no drone incursions into the Baltic states or Poland and no border violations on 6–7 November; north-western Russia is not named in the Russian MoD summary.
  • Measured assessment: Lithuania's defence minister calls the Kaliningrad border calmer.
  • Negotiation track: the Abu Dhabi talks on 10–11 November remain on schedule, and the Kushner plan includes crisis communications and escalation-risk reduction measures.

Rationale: the military situation in the region is calm, but Moscow's threatening rhetoric towards Poland and the Baltics and the dispute over a "European architecture" are balanced by the absence of kinetic events, Vilnius's measured tone and the continuing diplomatic track.

Delta vs previous issue: = (0.0) — 5.3 (6 November) → 5.3 (7 November). Reason: the rise in rhetorical tension is offset by the absence of incidents and calming assessments at the Kaliningrad border.

Disclaimer: this is an analytical assessment based on open sources, not a forecast.

Sources